Summary[]
Ben and Sam give an update on ongoing competitions, draft playoff teams, and answer emails about play-in games, Clayton Kershaw, a Tigers scoring mystery, and more.
Topics[]
- Playoff team draft
- Wild Card game strategy
- New York Yankees bullpen
- If Clayton Kershaw retired tomorrow, would he make the Hall of Fame?
- Players who made brief MLB debuts under age 20 and never played again
- How much did Jonathan Papelbon cost his future earnings after angrily grabbing Bryce Harper by the throat in the dugout?
- Trying to explain Detroit Tigers poor cluster luck
- Would a World Series game be postponed if a star player went missing?
Banter[]
- Episode 326 and Episode 607 follow-up: Ben won the 2015 Minor League Free Agent Draft.
- Episode 648 follow-up: Doug Thorburn currently leads the Tommy John Avoidance Draft, but there is still time for player to have Tommy John surgery.
- Episode 201, Episode 442, and Episode 669 follow-up: Ben leads all off the 25-and-Under Starters Drafts.
- Episode 304 follow-up: Pirates postseason update
- Episode 280 follow-up: Jacoby Ellsbury home run update
- Episode 696 follow-up: The Cardinals and Astros have not made a trade together.
- Episode 714 follow-up: Sam currently leads the 2015 MLB Debuts Draft
Draft Selections[]
| Ben | Sam |
|---|---|
| Dodgers | Blue Jays |
| Royals | Mets |
| Rangers | Cardinals |
| Pirates | Yankees |
| Cubs | Astros |
Email Questions[]
- Simon (Portland, OR): "So with the wild card play-in games fast approaching it's the time of year again to speculate about what the optimum approach might be to winning such a high stakes game where an entire season rests on the slimmest of margins. Last year the Royals threw their impressive bullpen at what was widely perceived as a superior Oakland A's team and the resulting victory opened the door for Kansas City to begin its march to the World Series and achieve what looks like a franchise resurrection. With all that's at sake what do you think the best approach to winning in this key game is?"
- Colin: "How confident are you in advanced pitching stats that show Kershaw as at least marginally better than Greinke and Arrieta this year despite some more traditional numbers that might say otherwise such as ERA and home runs allowed? What do you think Cy Young voters ought to be looking at to justify their vote? Should it be 80% deserved run average or strikeout rate or ERA or what? If Kershaw retired tomorrow do you think he would make the Hall of Fame?"
- Scott & Mike: "What was the economic impact of the Papelbon choke? How much did he cost himself?"
- Paul: "Just now browsing, I came across the fact that the Detroit Tigers finished first in BA, second in OBP, and fifth in SLG yet they were only sixteenth in actual runs scored. This seems like an aberration. Do you think other real skill factors like baserunning, coaching, and a third thing I can't figure out are this important in run creation or is this more likely bad sequencing? I am a Tigers fan who has been in Los Angeles for a decade and has yet to become a screenwriter. Please give me hope in any form."
- Wes: "How good a player would have to go missing before game 7 of the World Series in order for the game to be postponed? I'd imagine that if Clayton Kershaw was slated to pitch and just never showed up that they'd have to postpone the game just in case he was kidnapped or something, Dan Marino in Ace Ventura-style. What would happen?"
Play Index[]
- Sam uses the Play Index to look up players who had MLB service time during their age 19 season.
- Sam was inspired by Dylan Bundy, who pitched in two games in his age 19 season and hasn't been seen since. Sam wonders if Dylan Bundy would be the first player to play in the majors for one season before age 20 and never again. Bundy has suffered a number of injuries, but Sam predicts he will probably pitch in the majors again if he stays healthy. Editor's note: Sam was correct. Bundy returned to the majors in 2016.
- From 1950-1969 there were 39 players who had MLB service time at age 18 or 19, including a few players at age 17. Many of these were "bonus babies": From 1947 to 1965, if you signed an amateur for more than $4000, you had to put them directly on your active roster for two years. Sam calls it "the worst, the dumbest rule" because it took excellent prospects and made them do nothing for two seasons sitting on the bench.
- Alex George played in five games for the 1955 Kansas City A's at age 16. He never played again. Ben: "We should call him. He's only 77."
- Sam: "That's pre-modern baseball. Doesn't count. All sorts of crazy things were happening." He is about to say the name of a player but realizes that it's a racist nickname, so he refuses to say it. "That just proves my point. This is not real baseball. Guys with racist nicknames is not real baseball. We can just throw that out."
- This has not happened since 1988.
- Brian Milner was a catcher who played in two games for the Blue Jays during his age 18 season (1978), his first two games as a professional. He had committed to play college baseball and football for Arizona, but the Blue Jays lured him away for $250,000, and they put him directly on their active roster. After those two games, he never played again. Sam notes that Brian has a son Hoby Milner in the minor leagues who has a good chance of exceeding his father's playing time. Editor's Note: Hoby Milner would indeed get far more playing time than his father, garnering a few mentions on the podcast.
- Sam says he has Brian Milner's phone number, but he won't call him because "He has given interviews about this, and I don't want to talk to him."
- Ben looked up Alex George and found an interview he gave to KCUR radio in Kansas City, "Good thing we didn't call him."
Notes[]
- Ben wins the Playoff Draft. His teams accumulated 19 total wins to Sam's 17 wins.
- The Houston Astros have one of the highest home field advantages in the last decade. In general, teams that play in domed stadiums tend to have higher home field advantage.
- Sam says that teams should treat the Wild Card play-in game as a bullpen game: All roles are out the window, order your pitchers from best to worst, and giving each a limited role to avoid the times-through-the-order penalty.
- Ben and Sam agree that if Clayton Kershaw were forced to stop playing, the Hall of Fame would make an exception for putting him on the ballot despite not accruing 10 years of service time, and he would be elected on his first ballot.
- One of the reasons Ben gives for Kershaw involuntarily retiring was "if he got gangrene or something." Sam: "You don't want to say the thing, so I'm not going to say the thing either." Sam substitutes glaucoma, and Ben says, "That's not better." Sam: "We're both thinking the same thing, Ben. we're not going to say the thing, but we're both thinking about it."
- Sam confidently says that the choking incident cost Jonathan Papelbon "nothing. He didn't change anybody's impression of him. I mean, everybody already knew that he's Papelbon."
- Strangely, the Tigers had better offensive performance with RISP during the 2015 season. They were second worst in baserunning runs and had the worst cluster luck of any MLB team. Ben and Sam are unable to find a good reason for their poor scoring.
- Sam says that a player just not showing up would not cause a World Series game to be postponed. There would have to be some tragedy, like a kidnapping with a ransom note. Ben says, "So if you were considering this, don't bother."