Episode 2221: 50-50 Shot

Summary[]

Ben Lindbergh and FanGraphs' Ben Clemens dissect the glorious game in which Shohei Ohtani founded the 50-50 and 51-51 Clubs, Ohtani's most awe-inspiring feats, and his future, followed (29:51) by banter about the state of defensive stats, the mystery of Salvador Perez's swing decisions, questionable kudos for Bud Black, whether Victor Robles made the worst steal attempt of all time, and MLB's Players of the Game. Then (1:19:55) Ben talks to trailblazing journalist Melissa Ludtke, author of Locker Room Talk: A Woman's Struggle to Get Inside, about the landmark 1970s Ludtke v. Kuhn case that opened MLB team clubhouses to women.

Topics[]

Shohei Ohtani reaching 50-50 (home runs and steals) and 51-51 in a single phenomenal game
Shohei Ohtani's memorable moments (and Mike Trout's lack of them)
How Shohei Ohtani's greatness elicits responses from other great athletes
The future of Shohei Ohtani
The state of defensive stats
Salvador Perez's unusual swing decisions
Bud Black sets the Rockies manager win record
Mariners two bumbling errors: Julio Rodríguez dodges a flung bat and gets picked off, and Victor Robles making an extremely ill-advised attempt to steal home
MLB's Players of the Game
Interview with Melissa Ludtke, who won the landmark lawsuit granting women reporters access to MLB locker rooms
Melissa's start in sports journalism
The political environment surrounding equal rights
Agreeing to be the plaintiff in the lawsuit
Discrimination at Sports Illustrated while simultaneously having their support for the lawsuit
Different futures for "fact checkers" at the magazine based on gender
Why Bowie Kuhn was so adamant that baseball not follow the footsteps of other sports in allowing women reporters in locker rooms
Legal principles used to win the case
Friendship with Roger Angell
Dealing with other reports and players after gaining access to the clubhouse
Toll on her personal life
Connection to today's controversies over trans athletes

Email Questions[]

Michael (Patreon): I'd love it if you all could do a "state of defensive metrics" podcast after the season is over. What are the pros and cons of each? What can/should the baseball community do to improve them? Is Statcast the gold standard now for defensive metrics?

Notes[]

Ben Clemens gets a Fielding Bible vote this year.
Ben Clemens drew the attention of the Japanese media when his article on the probability of Ohtani reaching 50-50 was translated into Japanese on yahoo.co.jp. He has had Japanese media come to his apartment and film him running simulations on his computer. Ben Lindbergh: "That must have just been some scintillating footage."
Ben Clemens notes that projecting players who are doing normal things (like "How good will Tyler Holton be in the next 20 games?") is easier than projecting players doing unprecedented things.
Ben Lindbergh: "I'm not an RBI guy, but I am a ten RBI guy."
Ben Lindbergh feels bad that Mike Trout's most memorable moment might be striking out against Shohei Ohtani.
Ben Clemens is more impressed with Shohei Ohtani than Aaron Judge. Judge does one thing well, and it's something you can conceieve of. Whereas Ohtani is great at multiple things. "Pick a skill. Now he's the best at it."
For next year, Ben Clemens wants Shohei Ohtani to hit more home runs than he allows as a pitcher.
Ben Clemens thinks that defensive metrics are inherently volatile. Your opportunities to make a big difference are low, so a lucky read can make a difference. Nevertheless, volatility doesn't render metrics useless. FRV is a better metric for outfielders than DRS, and outfield defense is easier to measure since there are fewer things to track. "I think UZR just hasn't really kept up with the times."
Ben Lindbergh pronounces Defensive Runs Prevented as "derp".
Salvador Perez's stats are divisive depending on which one you pay attention to. FanGraphs penalizes him for poor framing, whereas BP doesn't take framing into account. His swing decisions are bad by Swing RV but good by SEAGER. Divisiveness over Salvador Perez was previously discussed in Episode 2204.
Bud Black has the most wins of a Rockies manager, but that's mostly due to longevity. His winning percentage is second worse among Rockies managers who lasted at least two seasons.
Victor Robles tried to steal home on a 3-0 count with the bases loaded and two outs. It wasn't close.
Ryan Nelson found the worst caught stealings at home. By WPA, Robles's caught stealing wasn't so bad because it was the first inning. By run expectancy, it cost the team 0.97 runs. This is the mathematically worst possible time to get caught stealing home. Since 1988 (pitch tracking era), no one had ever tried to steal home on a bases loaded two-out 3-0 pitch before.
Ben Clemens: "The way you successfully steal home is to make it weird. It's like onside kicks in football. When you do it when everyone's expecting it, it just doesn't work."
This century, there have been 15 attempted steals of home with the bases loaded and two outs. Of them, 8 were successful. The only successful one in the last ten years was a Marlins-Blue Jays game on August 12th, 2020, and it was part of a multiple steal attempt.
MLB is pushing its new "Player of the Game" fan vote (perhaps a bit too hard). FanGraphs has had one for quite some time. Ben Lindbergh likes the hockey "Stars of the Game" and wishes it would catch on in baseball.
After the chat with Ben Clemens was recorded, Shohei Ohtani founded the 52-52 club.
Melissa Ludtke was accredited to cover the 1977 World Series and had reported in the Yankees clubhouse at the end of that season with their permission. She told Tommy John that she would be covering the Dodgers, and he polled the players, who approved her access. However, when word of this got to commissioner Bowie Kuhn, he banned her from all clubhouses indefinitely. This led to the court case Ludtke vs. Kuhn in which she prevailed and secured access to locker rooms for women reporters.
Melissa met Frank Gifford of ABC Sports who said, "For a girl, you know a lot about sports" and invited her to come to New York where he would introduce her to the people there. This inspired her to pursue sports journalism, and she was hired at Sports Illustrated as a baseball reporter-researcher at age 24.
Melissa agreed to pursue the case, thinking it would be judged on merits and not subject her to moral outrage.
The most valuable time for Melissa was not the chaos of the post-game clubhouse but in the 45 minutes between batting practice and the start of the game. Players stayed in their uniform, so there was no issue of violating their "sexual privacy".
During the discovery process, she found documents regarding another woman reporter who was physically evicted from the Baseball Writers annual dinner for the offense of being a woman. The managing editor wrote a letter in her defense, but documents revealed that he did so only duress. He refused to write the letter, but the company's lawyers told him that he was obligated to do so due to a 1971 gender discrimination conciliation agreement. Eventually, the assistant editor wrote the letter, and he was forced to sign it.
Women hired into the "fact checker" role tended to stay there, whereas men were promoted to a writing position.
Bowie Kuhn was convinced of baseball's exceptionalism, and the rules which applied to lesser sports (like basketball and football) didn't apply to the National Pastime.
Melissa said that players never crossed the line with her, unlike other women reporters who came later. She did experience some pranking but learned to sidestep the issue to avoid it blowing up.
Melissa, on Bowie Kuhn being in the Hall of Fame: "Let me tell you, I did not make an extra effort to go look at his plaque when I was at Cooperstown."

Episode 2221: 50-50 Shot

Summary[]

Topics[]

Email Questions[]

Notes[]

Links[]