Episode 2214: Don't Bean Me, Bro

Summary[]

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the impressiveness of a prediction by Carlos Estévez, how to say the score from the losing team's perspective, and getting hit in the head by a hot dog. Then (23:13) they discuss getting hit in the head (or the hands) by a baseball: how often it happens, how dangerous it is, and whether (as Whit Merrifield argues) MLB must act to discourage it. Then (58:28) they brainstorm about visiting teams' first-inning disadvantage and answer listener emails (1:08:42) about Triple-A teams as playoff warm-up acts, an obscure Rich Hill record, post-PitchCom performance in past sign-stealing situations, headfirst sliding vs. feet-first sliding (and whether running more can cause one to slump at the plate), the concept of a "natural position," and the ethics of a UCL exclusivity deal.

Topics[]

How often are hitters hit by a pitch in the head or hands?
How dangerous is it?
Whit Merrifield's belief that it is a serious problem that MLB will address soon
Drop in first inning scoring
Visiting starting pitchers appear to perform worse the longer the top of the first inning lasts
Could teams with a postseason bye play a scrimmage against their AAA affiliate to stay sharp?
Does Rich Hill have the record for most appearances in a season averaging at most one out per appearance?
Did PitchCom reduce offense when there is a runner on second?
Ratio of headfirst to feet-first slides
Could a player have a "natural position"?
Is Shohei Ohtani stealing more bases because he's going for 50-50? Is that a good thing? Will it hurt his offense?
What if a team could get exclusive rights to a "magic UCL" that never tears?

Banter[]

Carlos Estévez so confident in his prediction that his team would retake the lead that he that he started warming up
How to say the score from the losing team's perspective: "losing 2-1" or "losing 1-2"?
Carlos Estévez hit in the head by a (wrapped) hot dog thrown from the stands

Final Notes[]

Manny Machado hits his 163rd home run as a Padre, moving ahead of Nate Colbert and becoming the franchise home run leader.
Hockey players allergic to their gloves.

Email Questions[]

Adam (Patreon): Tonight Whit Merrifield took a ball off the dome to add another potential injury due to hit by pitch. The usual commentary following the incident is centered around this idea that guys are making it to the big leagues based mostly on throwing really hard but not having good control. Is there a way to fact check this sentiment? Are hit by pitches trending up? Is the average velocity of a hit by pitch up or are hit by pitches by fastballs up over breaking balls? Are injuries from hit by pitches up? Ignoring hit by pitches is there a way to determine the control of young players (like been in the league less then 3 years) vs the control of young players from previous decades?

Tim: Listening to your last podcast where you were talking about minor leaguers playing in their major league ballpark, I was wondering if a team could use their AAA affiliate to help them succeed in the playoffs.

I'm sure you are aware of the theory that teams that have a bye in the first round of the playoffs are at a disadvantage because their players get "rusty" due to the extended time off. It seems to me that taking a week off between competitive games is a choice, rather than a necessity. Why couldn't a team in line for a bye schedule an exhibition game or two against their AAA affiliate while the other playoff teams are playing in the first round?

Play in the major league park. If the MLB team is good enough to merit a bye, I imagine the games would be sold out. The AAA players would probably be thrilled for the experience, and the major leaguers would be happy to get the chance to maintain their skills in advance of the playoffs. Even if the competition is not at the same level, it should be close enough to keep the edge for the MLB players. Aside from logistical issues, I fail to see the downside.

Paolo: A simple Stat Blast-lite question in honor of Rich Hill appearing in a game for the 20th straight season: I was perusing his player page and noticed that in 2014, he pitched only 5.1 innings over 16 games - exactly one out per appearance. (It looks like he accomplished this by being very ineffective in a LOOGYish role.) I kind of doubt I stumbled upon a record here, but I wouldn't put it past Rich Hill, and I have a hard time seeing anyone maintaining a similar ratio over many more games. If you aren't getting anyone out, I don't think most teams would keep running you out there, and if you are then that would obviously boost the IP/G ratio. So, has anyone pitched in more than 16 games in a season while averaging one out or less per appearance, or is this yet another way in which Rich Hill is unique?

Terry (Patreon): Now that MLB has used PitchCom for almost two full seasons, has there been any affect on hitting with runners on second base? Have batting averages or slugging percentages gone down as runners can no longer steal signs?

Elliot: Is Shohei's base-stealing prowess even MORE impressive than it seems considering he is exclusively a feet-first slider?

Tanner (Patreon): I'm curious if you believe in the concept of a natural position. In Davy Andrews coverage of Oneil Cruz's move off of SS, he excerpted a Pirates beat reporter criticizing the move away from "his natural position." Given the circumstances, that seemed overly confident about Cruz's relationship to the position, but that phrase has always seemed oddly deterministic to me. What say you two?

Andy: On Episode 2201, you discussed the strength of Aroldis Chapman's arm -- not just his ability to throw 105, but the durability to never need elbow surgery. Ben said, "He has to donate his UCL to science." But why stop there? Doesn't this UCL have monetary value?

What if the last team to employ him could negotiate tendon rights? The Pirates could've offered a one-year deal that included postseason surgery to claim the UCL. The front office would then have the option to preemptively put the tendon in Jared Jones, keep it on ice, or maybe find a trade partner (Nutting it away for cash considerations).

(I have attempted no research to learn if this is medically ridiculous or if Team ElAttrache is on the verge.)

But hypothetically, how much would this be worth to a team? Assume the strength is verifiable. Only one pitcher can have it at a time, but that person is immune from elbow injuries.

Notes[]

With his team losing 2-1 in the top of the ninth, Carlos Estévez, then closer for the Rockies, announced loudly that Ryan McMahon (not yet in the game) would hit a home run on a curveball, upsetting Phillies fans. He was so confident in this prediction that he started warming up. McMahon hit a home run as predicted. Estévez closed the game for the Rockies to earn the save. This is a prediction from three years ago, so it's possible that details have been embellished in Estévez's mind. Unfortunately, the game is not available on MLB.TV, and the game clips on YouTube don't show whether Estévez was warming up in the top of the ninth. In Episode 2215, Ben reports on his investigation into this prediction.
Ben says "losing 2-1". Meg can't remember how she says it but thinks "losing 2-1" sounds wrong. "I'm not expressing conviction. I'm expressing consternation. I don't have a functional refrigerator, Ben, and and also the microwave is still broken."
Whit Merrifield is on the MLB Competition Committee, and he was confident that new punishments will be in place next year for pitchers who hit players in the head, neck, hands, or wrists. In the Athletic article, he got support from Atlanta manager Brian Snitker.
Merrifield's proposal was that a pitcher who hits a batter in the head or neck is immediately ejected and loses one or two day's pay. If a batter breaks his hand, the pitcher is fined.
Ben and Meg discuss whether Merrifield's proposals would work, and whether they are fair. Ben is concerned that a simple mistake, unintentional, could result in a pitcher being ejected.
The hit by pitch rate this year is below that of 2020, 2021, and 2023. Unfortunately, those four years are the highest since the formation of the AL in 1901. The top eight seasons by hit by pitches per plate appearance; 2020, 2021, 2023, 2024, 2022, 2019, 2018, 2001.
The 2021 sticky stuff crackdown didn't change the hit by pitch rate significantly. The lack of sticky stuff gave pitchers less control of the ball, but they may have also compensated by throwing more carefully.
KinaTrax data does not show that batters are standing any closer to the plate in recent years, though they may have moved away from the pitcher, presumably to get a little more time to read the pitch.
Ben looked at Baseball Savant pitch tracking data for hit by pitches. In the area "up and in", this season is on track for 740 of hit by pitches (presumably on or near the head), which is the lowest since 2017 (excluding 2020). Last year, there were a record 49 hit by pitches within one baseball width of the strike zone, suggesting that batters are crowding the plate.
Ben estimated the number of broken hands due to hit by pitches by taking the number of hand fractures and subtracting hamate fractures. From 2016 to 2023, the highest was 15 in 2017, with 14 in 2022 and 2023 a close second.
Ben isn't sure that it will help to punish pitchers for actions which were unintentional. Pitchers might get too wary, and an accidental hit by pitch that triggers an ejection in the first inning would really ruin a team's day.
There have been 3 hit by pitches that occurred in the strike zone so far this year. Last year, there were 5.
NPB does have a mandatory ejection for pitches that hit the batter's head. A lot of the times, it's from a comparatively slow pitch that just got away from the pitcher.
One variation that was proposed is that the pitcher is automatically ejected for hitting a batter in the head only if the batter leaves the game. Ben worries that this could be gamed.
Rob Mains believes that the universal DH has contributed to the first inning no longer being the highest-scoring inning. The third through sixth innings rival the first in scoring as starters get tired. The home team has a positive run differential in each inning, highest in the first inning. Smith and Mains believe it's because the home pitcher knows exactly when he will enter the game and can time his warm-ups perfectly. The visiting pitcher has to wait an unpredictable amount of time, and the longer the top half of the inning lasts, the better the home team does in the bottom half, presumably because the visiting pitcher has cooled off.
Meg doesn't think the logistics work out for a team playing its AAA affiliate because the AAA postseason is completed before the MLB postseason begins, so players are no longer available. She also notes that teams would much rather have the rest days. You can line up your rotation perfectly against the second-round opponent, and your pitchers are all fresh. What team would burn a pitcher for an exhibition game? "I don't want to throw cold water on it but I am throwing cold water on it."
Ben notes that even if you let the minor league pitchers throw for both sides, MLB hitters can just get reps against the advanced pitching machines to see real MLB pitching. And you avoid running and fielding injuries.
Last year, Ben Clemens found that there is no "rust" penalty for teams that have a playoff bye.
Ben ran a Stathead query to confirm that Rich Hill does indeed have the record for most appearances in a season averaging at most one out per appearance.

Year	Player	G	Outs
2014	Rich Hill	16	16
2015	Dana Eveland	10	10
2017	Xavier Cedeño	9	9
2017	Wei-Chung Wang	8	4

Ben doesn't expect Rich Hill's record to be broken, now that we have the three-batter minimum.
Rich Hill has sadly already been designated for assignment.
Ben looked at OPS+ splits with and without a runner on second since 2010. They are basically in the 104-107 range. "So if you can detect a trend there, then you're not me."
Ben went to Baseball Savant and ran the same "2B or not 2B" comparison for OPS, wOBA, tOPS+, and wOBA+. This year ties 2022 for largest difference since 2008.
Meg appreciates that the PitchCom transition went off smoothly. Ben notes that PitchCom removes the need for complex signs and may have contributed the drop in wild pitches and passed balls due to fewer cross-ups.
Ben hadn't realized that Shohei Ohtani slides exclusively feet-first and enjoys adding it to his list of things that make Ohtani even more impressive.
Mark Simon from Sports Info Solutions provided data on types of slides. They have been tracking this since 2021. It includes all slides, not just slides on stolen bases.
Shohei Ohtani has slide 67 times this year, all feet-first. The next highest exclusive feet-first sliders are Michael Bush (34), Wyatt Langford (30), Adley Rutschman (30). Over the last two years, Corbin Carroll slide feet-first 133 times and head-first only twice.
Ben invites Meg to guess what percent of slides in MLB are feet-first. He notes that 4% of slides are neither head-first nor feet-first. (They are classified as things like "swim move".) Meg has difficulty guessing but settles on a 50/50 split between head-first and feet-first. In reality, 62% of slides are feet-first.
Ben guessed that feet-first slides are on the increase, but it's actually the opposite. Since 2021, the percentage of feet-first slides has fallen from 71% to 62%, with head-first slides correspondingly increasing from 25% to 34%. Ben and Meg discuss why that might be.
There is no rule regulating the size of sliding mitts, and Meg is convinced that teams are increasing the size over time, but only imperceptibly year by year to avoid MLB stepping in and regulating the sizes. Ben wonders if this is why head-first slides are becoming more common: To take advantage of the extra reach afforded by sliding mitts.
Meg, on "natural position": "So I'm going to have an upper bound to how much I can do certain things, right? Could I train my way from where I sit now to that upper bound? I sure could, Ben. Am I going to do that? No, I'm a podcaster."
Meg feels that while players might have a natural talent that gives them a head start at a particular position, that doesn't mean that they couldn't train at a different position and be even better at the new position.
Shohei Ohtani had a 1020 OPS through July 5, but is "only" 933 after July 6. Ben thinks it's randomness, but some people in the Discord group wonder if his increase in stolen bases is coming at the expense of his bat.
Meg finds the reusable magical UCL scenario "gross", with multiple layers of ethical concerns.
A listener notes that at various points in hockey history, notably in the 1970's, players suffered from skin reactions to their equipment. The belief is that it was due to the use of formaldehyde in the manufacturing process to control mildew and maintain color. Hockey Hall of Famer Marian Hossa was forced to retire because of uncontrolled eczema.