Episode 2143: The 2024 Preseason Predictions Game

Summary[]

Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and FanGraphs authors Michael Baumann and Ben Clemens play "Character Who Appears in Shōgun the Novel (but Not the TV Series) or International Amateur Baseball Player" (3:13), banter about an MLBPA power struggle (8:37) and the life of late Orioles owner Peter Angelos (16:51), and then explain the second annual preseason predictions game (22:38) and make 10 bold predictions apiece (29:00) about baseball in 2024, to be voted on by listeners.

Topics[]

Preseason Predictions Game

Banter[]

Michael challenges Ben to a game of "Character Who Appears in Shōgun the Novel (but Not the TV Series) or International Amateur Baseball Player?"
Failed attempt to oust MLBPA deputy director Bruce Meyer and replace him with Harry Marino
Remembering Orioles owner Peter Angelos, who recently passed away

Final Notes[]

Shohei Ohtani addresses the media about the gambling scandal but does not take questions.

Quiz results[]

Name	Ben's guess	Answer
Jikkyu Ikawa	✓ Shōgun character	Enemy of Yabu and Toranaga
Henry Godbout	❌ Shōgun character	Infielder at University of Virginia
Rintaro Sasaki	✓ Baseball player	Japanese high school player, going to Vanderbilt
Alvin Carradak	✓ Shōgun character	John Blackthorne's mentor

Draft[]

Rd	Ben Lindbergh	Ben Clemens	Michael	Meg
1	No pitcher will reach 200 IP in the regular season.	The top pick in the 2024 amateur draft will not be Dub Gleed, Michael Massey, Ethan Petry, or Marek Houston.	Shohei Ohtani will steal more bases than the total of the number of games he's suspended (if any) + the number of open media sessions he attends during the season.	At least one position player drafted in July will play in the 2024 regular season or postseason.
2	The Angels will win more games this season than they did in any year with Shohei Ohtani on the team.	Jacob deGrom will finish with a higher fWAR than Lance Lynn.	The Oakland A's will draw fewer fans to a game than the capacity of the Savannah Bananas cruise (2,402) at least 10 times.	Aaron Judge and Juan Soto will both hit 50+ HR.
3	The average per-team stolen-base total will be the highest since the 1980s.	The Seattle Mariners will not be no-hit or one-hit in a game in 2024.	Either Hagen Smith (Arkansas), Chase Burns (Wake Forest), or both will surpass the 15.3 K/9 achieved by Paul Skenes in 2023.	Shota Imanaga will finish with a higher fWAR than Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
4	Joey Votto will out-homer 2022 Albert Pujols (24).	Alejandro Kirk will post the highest wRC+ among AL primary catchers to record 300+ PA.	A relief pitcher (50%+ appearances in relief) will win as many games as one of the Cy Young winners.	Jordan Montgomery will be unsigned as of Opening Day, but will still finish in the Top 5 of Cy Young voting.
5	The four "Jacksons" (Holliday, Jobe, Chourio, Merrill) will produce more fWAR than the four "jacked sons" (Yandy Díaz, Tyler O'Neill, Adolis García, Michael Lorenzen).	Alek Manoah will pitch at least 150 innings and have a sub-4 ERA.	The Atlanta Braves will win at least 49 more games than the Chicago White Sox.	Jackson Jobe will throw a no-hitter in the major leagues in 2024.
6	Sixto Sánchez will become the first player to earn Rookie of the Year votes in non-consecutive seasons.	Patrick Bailey will be the first player in the 2020s to put up 30 runs of defensive value according to FanGraphs.	There will be a combined perfect game this season.	Gabriel Moreno will finish the season as the most valuable starting catcher in the National League.
7	The regular-season schedule will end with the first-ever three-way tie for a playoff spot.	A player will hit at least 70 home runs in the regular season.	At least one active MLB player will issue an apology in a press release for comments made on social media about the 2024 election or issues related thereto.	The Pirates will win the NL Central.
8	At least one of the Giants' free agent additions from the 2023-24 offseason will have a higher fWAR than Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto.	Oneil Cruz will receive MVP votes, but still finish behind Elly De La Cruz.	There will be at least one ejection in the Super Regional round of the NCAA tournament, but none in the College World Series.	The Orioles will make the postseason, but will be swept out of their first postseason series.
9	For the second straight season, there will be a first-time World Series winner.	No player will reach 8 fWAR.	Spencer Strider will strike out at least 300 batters.	George Kirby will win the AL Cy Young Award.
10	The average age of MLB batters, weighted by plate appearances, will be lower than in any season since the 1970s.	The second semifinal of the Home Run Derby will go to a tiebreaker.	There will be a viral or semi-viral moment involving a screenshot of a player's nipples, gooch and/or butthole, or the outline of their penis and/or testicles being visible through their uniform during a broadcast.	Two Texas Rangers will finish in the Top 5 in AL MVP voting.

Ben Clemens asks Michael to name four college players, and those are the players that went into Ben's first prediction. Once the reason is revealed, Michael notes that Petry and Houston are not draft-eligible, and Massey is not only injured, but only the third best pitcher on his team.
Michael's pick involving Ohtani media appearances was partly out of spite: Judge and scorekeeper Chris Hanel sent him a message at 9 o'clock on Saturday, and as punishment, Michael chose something that would be hard to track. Ben figures that there won't be many, and he'll ask Season Preview Series guest Fabian Ardaya if he could keep track.
Michael clarifies that an "open media session" is a situation in which Ohtani answers non-planted questions from a reporter, so that would include a one-on-one interview or a scrum.
Ben Lindbergh, responding to Meg's pick of a draftee playing in 2024: "So you're betting on a Nolan Schanuel repeat." Meg: "I am."
The Angels' best season with Shohei Ohtani was 2018 with 80 wins, and Ohtani was hurt for part of that season.
The A's drew fewer than 2402 fans once in 2023, and fewer than 3000 four times.
When Ben Lindbergh heard the start of Michael's Savannah Bananas cruise prediction, he thought, based on last year's animal death prediction, that Michael was going to predict that someone drowns.
When Meg said "teammates", Michael thought she was going to predict that two teammates would kiss.
Meg believes that the only teammates both to hit at least 50 home runs were Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris, the "M and M boys".
Ben Lindbergh thinks that teams are still adapting to the new running environment, so he boldly predicted a large uptick in stolen bases. Stolen bases were up 41% last year. To beat 1987, it would have to go up 18%. That was too much, so he picked 1990 as his lookback, which would require an increase of 8.4%. He also thinks that stricter enforcement of the obstruction rule may also contribute to more running (even though he doesn't think that obstruction credits a stolen base).
The Mariners have been no-hit or one-hit 15 times in the Statcast era, the most in MLB. The team with the fewest is the Marlins, whose only no-hit or one-hit game was last year (ironically, to the Mariners). They had gone eight years without ever being no-hit or one-hit.
Michael, introducing his Paul Skenes K/9 prediction: "I'm building up to the one prediction that's the whole reason I'm doing this game."
Ben Lindbergh was thinking of predicting that 2024 would be the first year with no 40-year-old hitters. Then he realized that Joey Votto is the only realistic candidate in that category, "But I don't want to root against Joey Votto," and he changed his prediction to be pro-Votto.
Michael thinks that Jordan Montgomery is holding out so he won't be QO'd. Meg says that was part of what led her to the prediction.
Before making his "four Jacksons" prediction, Ben Lindbergh asks the others to name the most famous players who are "jacked". Ben Clemens picks Giancarlo Stanton, but Ben Lindbergh notes that Stanton has slimmed down recently.
When Ben Lindbergh says that he's picking the "four Jacksons", Michael says that there are five. Ben doesn't react and later admits that there are so many players named Jackson, he didn't realize it was a Jackson Five joke.
Michael initially was going to predict that the Braves would win 50 more games than the White Sox, but changed it to 49 to make it sound more precise.
Meg: "I've been on a side quest to eat half a sandwich and a side salad, and I've completed my quest. I don't think anyone knew."
There have been players to receive Rookie of the Year votes in consecutive seasons, but no one has ever gotten them in non-consecutive seasons.
Ben Lindbergh had noted that the distribution of teams this year has an unusually large "mediocre middle": Sixteen teams (over half) have a projected win total in the 80-85 range, and ten are in the 83-85 range. In a typical year, it's 8 and 4 teams, respectively.
Meg predicts that "The Pirates will win the NL (whispers) Central." She whispered it so quietly that the others thought she had predicted that the Pirates would win the NL outright.
Ben Clemens considered predicting that Oneil Cruz would hit a Statcast 500-foot home run but decided that wasn't interesting.
Ben Clemens' Oneil Cruz/Elly de la Cruz prediction pre-empted Ben Lindbergh's planned prediction that one of the Cruzes would double the other's WAR. So far, the two have had very similar stats, and he wanted to predict that one of them would pull far ahead.
Michael explains that the NCAA has instructed college umpires to be strict about unsportsmanlike behavior like throwing a helmet in celebration. "College umps are the worst." His prediction is that they will be more lenient at the College World Series when everyone is watching.
The last time there were back-to-back first-time World Series winners was 2001/2002 with the Diamondbacks and Angels.
Ben Lindbergh considered re-picking "Daniel Vogelbach steals a base" because the pressure is off this year. "Like, no one's thinking of Daniel Vogelbach stealing a base anymore." He also considered re-picking that there would be a minor league game-fixing scandal.
Last year, the weighted average batter age was 27.99. The lowest in recent years is 2019's 27.91. In the 1970's, it hit its low at 27.67 in 1978.
Ben Clemens's Home Run Derby prediction was the first he thought of. "The main point of this is to prove that I am a sorcerer." He compares it to A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court, where the character predicts an eclipse.
Michael's transparent pants prediction was also the first he thought of. His friend Stephen from the Batting Around podcast has agreed to track this. Meg is upset that Michael pre-empted her pants-related prediction.
On his transparent pants prediction, Michael says, "I've waited this long because maybe Shane won't be listening." The conversation gets sillier and hornier, and Ben shouts, "Leave it in! And use the horny theme!"
Meg considers her "Two Texas Rangers will be MVP finalists" pick to be spicy, but Michael points out that it happened in 2023: Corey Seager and Marcus Semien came in second and third in MVP voting. Nevertheless, Meg stick with it.
Michael considered "Wyatt Langford will slug .720." Meg admits she considered something similar.
Ben Clemens considered "Jordan Walker will blow someone up in the outfield." He withdrew it because it happened in a spring training game.

Notes[]

Even though it's only a year old, the Preseason Predictions Game has quickly become one of the most anticipated episodes of the year in the Discord group.
Ben has read Shōgun, but it was long enough ago that all he remembers is that he loved it.
Michael says that the attempt by a faction of players to oust Bruce Meyer failed to muster enough votes. "And that feels like violating rule one of doing a coup is you need to be sure that you have numerical superiority."
Harry Marino was instrumental in getting minor leaguers to join the MLBPA and is closer to the younger players, whereas Bruce Meyer is an old timer who was the lead negotiator in the past few CBA negotiations.
Meg: "I wish that we had more low stakes opportunities to use the word putsch."
The new owner of the Orioles will be David Rubenstein, pending approval by the other owners.
Peter Angelos is the last MLB owner who made his money the old-fashioned way, not by inheriting it or working in finance. He was a lawyer in high-profile class action lawsuits like asbestos and tobacco.
Michael Baumann had forgotten that the season doesn't start until Thursday. "I was just going to show up at the park on Wednesday."
After the draft, Michael brings up the MLB.TV ad where Nestor Cortes gets a horoscope reading. "You know who we are not reaching? The horoscope girlies."
Chris Hanel is scraping the FanGraphs projections page to calculate projected scores for the Minor League Free Agent Draft. Ben Clemens is projected to win with 830, followed by Meg with 620 and Ben with 385. Meg notes that the MLFAD is "very binary. You go from zero to 300 in a hurry and vice versa."
The listener voting page was designed by Chris Hanel and coded by Dillon Pentz.