Episode 1972: The Prospects for the Prospects

Summary[]

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Prospect Week at FanGraphs, a misleading email, and Ben's daughter's cold, then discuss Alex Rodriguez as a budding book author, social-media maven, and flawed (anti)hero (9:19), non-revelatory news about Shohei Ohtani's future (24:07), a secret Mets spring training drill (32:07), and Ben's reviews of two baseball books that were recently under consideration to be banned in Duval County, Florida (46:07). After that (1:10:59), they bring on FanGraphs lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen to discuss the site's ranking of the Top 100 (well, 112) prospects in baseball, touching on the relative thinness of the top of the class, evaluating injured pitchers (including Daniel Espino), prospects who could make impacts in 2023 (such as Eury Pérez and Andrew Painter), Gunnar Henderson vs. Corbin Carroll, fast-rising prospects, players Eric is higher on than the consensus, how rule changes affect prospect rankings, notable farm systems, the most interesting prospects to evaluate, and Noah Song joining the Phillies, followed by a Past Blast from 1972 (2:04:31).

Topics[]

Three baseball books on the list of those threatened with being banned in Duval County Florida schools: "Henry Aaron's Dream", "Roberto Clemente, Pride of the Pittsburgh Pirates", and "Thank You, Jackie Robinson"
Ben's reviews of "Henry Aaron's Dream" and "Roberto Clemente, Pride of the Pittsburgh Pirates"
Accuracy of historical details in "Henry Aaron's Dream" and "Roberto Clemente, Pride of the Pittsburgh Pirates"
Response from Matt Tavares, author of "Henry Aaron's Dream"
Rumors that Rob Manfred contacted the district to help secure the books' approval
Eric Longenhagen talks about prospects
Reasons (good and bad) why the top of the list is thinner this year
The injured Daniel Espino
Andrew Painter and Eury Pérez, who are likely to make appearances this year
Deciding whether Corbin Carroll or Gunnar Henderson should get the number one spot (it went to Carroll)
Players who moved up or down the list, and the ranking process in general
Players who are overrated or underrated: Eric likes Harry Ford and Evan Carter more than other analysts
Effect of new rules on prospect rankings
Atlanta and Kansas City having no prospects in the top 100, for different reasons
Noah Song discharged from the military and available to play baseball for the Phillies
Past Blast: The Boys of Summer published
Follow-up on earlier topic: Rob Manfred's involvement in restoration of baseball books
Correction to Episode 1968: position player pitching quality improved during the season, rather than deteriorated.

Banter[]

Prospect Week at FanGraphs
Ben got an email titled "Seo" and he thought it was about Jay Weong Seo, but it was about search engine optimization
Ben's daughter is sick for the first time in her life, and she doesn't understand it
Alex Rodriguez social media picture showing him starting work on his book, his bare legs supporting a pad of paper with the word "book" written on it, whether he's wearing pants, major leaguers owning absurdly large mansions, whether this was a calculated photo op intended to viral or he simple doesn't realize that he's a weirdo.
Non-revelatory statements from Shohei Ohtani's agent on the team Ohtani may play for next, and chiding the media for over-reporting
Mets kick reporters off the field so they could conduct a proprietary drill

Notes[]

Ben, on Alex Rodriguez: "I don't think he is necessarily always conscious of the ways in which he's weird."
Ben says he would read A-Rod's book. "I'd be much more interested in reading that than most athlete autobiographies."
Shohei Ohtani's agent merely stated that Ohtani has earned the right to explore free agency, "and we'll see where it shakes out." This says nothing we don't already know.
Meg's guesses as to what the Mets' proprietary drill was, in increasing order of silliness: (1) They were doing psychedelic mushrooms. (2) They practiced celebrating winning the World Series, like they did in 2019. (3) They were practicing a way to exploit the new anti-shift or pickoff rules. In Episode 1974, we learn what they were doing.
The books were cited for unacceptable race-related content. Ben: "This is meant to protect white people's feelings and to keep other people intimidated or underinformed, right?"
Ben read the Aaron and Clemente books and found them unobjectionable. He found some factual errors in the Clemente book, but the Aaron book was well-researched and even debunked popular myths.
Matt Tavares says that while he is happy for the renewed attention to his book, he is concerned for other books on the list: "There are book bans like this going on all over the country, and there are a lot of authors whose books are widely banned. ... Most of these books don't have powerful people advocating for them."
At 1:04:40, one of Meg's cats walks on her desk and knocks over things.
Tavares revised the book in 2014 to remove the use of the n-word, which he initially included to highlight how much hatred Aaron faced, but which he realized was also hindering its use in schools.
Eric gives a few reasons for the top of the list being thinner: Last year's prospects was extraordinarily strong, resulting in 40 of them graduating to the majors, a record high since the lists began in 1990. The loss of the 2020 minor league season made it harder for players to improve and the lack of stats made it harder for teams to assess players. And the contraction of the minor leagues reduces the number of players overall.
Miguel Bleis moved up the list based on visual evaluation. Eric is sad that Brendan Davis dropped down the list, due to injury.
At the lower minors and below, visual evaluation is more reliable than raw data because the players are developing so much.
Before the other top 100 lists come out, Eric doesn't know who is overrated or underrated because "I'm not online enough to know any more, basically, which is probably a healthy existence."
Eric likes Harry Ford more than other rankings do. "Can this guy actually catch? ... Right now, no, definitely not." He has a good arm, but his receiving is poor, and he has an awkward crouch.
The effect of the new rules is for Eric to value defensive shortstops more. The shift ban will raise the value of pull-only hitters. For pitchers, he's looking for those who look athletic and have enough mechanical efficiency to have the stamina to pitch at the rate dictated by the pitch clock while maintaining their stuff. He's not sure how to take the pickoff rules into account.
Atlanta is missing from the Top 100 list because they promoted their guys, like Spencer Strider. The Royals, on the other hand, did not have their international picks pay off.
Ben found a paragraph buried in a larger story that said that Rob Manfred had talked to Florida governor Ron DeSantis, and the baseball books were removed from the list.

Episode 1972: The Prospects for the Prospects

Summary[]

Topics[]

Banter[]

Notes[]

Links[]

Fan Feed