Episode 1921: Always Tell Me the Odds

Summary[]

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Ben's baseball Facebook friend recommendations, the Phillies' odds against the Astros in the World Series, Kyle Schwarber's mechanical bull ride, a hidden perk of the Astros' pitching depth, whether we judge managers too much by their rings, the career and legacy of Dave Dombrowski, the Marlins hiring Skip Schumaker as manager, the length of games this postseason, and Shohei Ohtani's old team drafting another two-way player, followed by Stat Blasts (1:10:37) about when the AL/NL's cumulative HR total overtook its cumulative SB total, a pitcher pinch running for the DH, and George Springer and the most hits before a first pinch hit, plus a Past Blast from 1921.

Topics[]

Astros being 60/40 favorites over the Phillies in the World Series
Kyle Schwarber riding a mechanical bull, and how he maybe should lay off the dangerous hobbies for now
Reliever familiarity effect in long series, and how the Astros pitching depth provides an advantage
Dusty Baker's attempt to win his first World Series ring as a manager
Whether we overvalue World Series titles when evaluating manager careers
Dave Dombroswki's illustrious GM career, including reaching the World Series for four different franchises
Marlins hiring Skip Schumaker as manager
Will his players call him "Skip"? On familiarity and formality when talking to managers
Theories as to why games are shorter this postseason by around 15 minutes
Nippon Ham Fighters (Shohei Ohtani's former team) drafted Kota Yazawa, a two-way player
Nippon Ham Fighters manager Tsuyoshi Shinjo has stopped going by "Big Boss".
When did AL/NL total homers surpass total stolen bases?
Pitcher pinch running for his own DH
Most hits before getting a pinch hit
Past Blast: The last 9-game World Series

Banter[]

Ben's Facebook "you might know this person" recommendations for baseball players

Email Questions[]

Justin (Patreon): As one is wont to do, I got lost amidst the aisles of Baseball Reference this evening. While being distracted from my original mission of researching early Latino players, I stumbled upon a significant milestone within Major League Baseball historical totals. Measuring from 1876 to the present, all-time home runs have eclipsed all-time stolen bases. As of today, September 28, 2022, there have been 1,093 more homers than steals. If you measure from 1871, taking account of the National Association, to the present, there are still 600 more steals than home runs.

For argument's sake, let's take 1876 as the official starting point. My question is: who slugged the home run that turned the tide of history? Secondly, I have to imagine this is the first time homers have eclipsed stolen bases on the all-time list... or is it?

Max (Patreon): In the Mets vs Cubs game on September 12th, Mychal Givens came in to pitch the top of the 7th and 8th innings. In the bottom of the 8th, DH Daniel Vogelbach hit in his spot in the batting order (5th) and walks. Givens is then inserted as the pinch-runner for Vogelbach, removing Vogelbach from the game. Has this ever been done before? I guess Givens never was replaced in the game, as he was the most recent pitcher to pitch and then after Vogelbach reaches 1st, he removes the DH from the game. We've seen pitchers being inserted as pinch-runners before, but it feels rare to see the current pitcher be inserted for the current DH, when he is already in the game.

Paul (Patreon): Statblast possibility: George Springer just got his 1000th career hit, which was also happened to be his 1st career pinch hit. This feels like a lot of career hits before a first pinch hit. So, is this interesting? Maybe not, as players who mostly start for most of their career would not have many pinch hit opportunities until later in their career when they would have racked up a lot of career hits.

Claude (Patreon): This is not very timely, but I have a question that might still make for an interesting StatBlast (TM). On August 17th, George Springer got his 1000th hit as his first career pinch hit. He was previously 0 for 10 as a pinch hitter. This actually raises two questions: What is the highest number of hits any player had before getting their first pinch-hit, and what is the highest number of AB any player had as a pinch hitter before getting a hit (could even include players that never actually got a pinch hit).

Stat Blast[]

Ryan Nelson found the answers for the Stat Blasts.

When homers passed stolen bases[]

Ryan points out that stolen bases weren't tracked in their current form until 1887, so stolen bases are probably still ahead of homers, we just don't know by how much.
If you start counting in 1887, then homers passed stolen bases on April 27, 2021. The day started with 29 more stolen bases than homers. On that day, there were 37 homers and 6 stolen bases. The go-ahead homer probably occurred in the Rockies/Giants game.
Ben notes that next year's rule changes could help stolen bases regain the lead, but both he and Meg think it's unlikely.

Pitcher pinch running for his own DH[]

This has happened only three times. When a team does this, it forfeits the DH for the remainder of the game.

Date	Team	Pitcher	DH
2022-09-12	Mets	Mychal Given	Daniel Vogelbach
2020-07-26	Reds	Michael Lorenzen	Jesse Winker
1984-07-23	Twins	Keith Atherton	Dave Kingman

Most hits before getting a pinch hit[]

Only five players got 2000 hits before their first pinch hit.

Player	Hits before first pinch hit
Alex Rodriguez	2919
Cal Ripken Jr.	2911
Derek Jeter	2846
Luis Aparicio	2284
Billy Herman	2128

George Springer is 49th on the list.
Alex Rodriguez finally got his first pinch hit on his 18th try.
Cap Anson never got a pinch hit. If this counts, then he would top the leader board with 3435.

Notes[]

Ben uses Facebook only to moderate the Facebook group. He posts no personal information, and is rather lax about who he accepts as a friend. Apparently enough of them are sufficiently connected in baseball that Facebook recommends former baseball players as people he might know.
Meg asks Ben to name a male nickname. Ben offers "Chuck". Meg asks for a different one. Ben insists he can't think of any other male nicknames. Editor's note: Not even "Ben"?
The hiring of Skip Schumaker goes counter to the trend of hiring older, much more experienced managers.
Schumaker played in 1149 games over 11 seasons yet has only 0.9 fWAR. Ben says, "That's a future manager right there." A player with that much longevity despite non-superstar stats is presumably a mentor or clubhouse leader.
All of the games in the 1921 World Series between the New York Giants and the New York Yankees were held at the Polo Grounds, the home stadium of both teams. Attendance dropped off as the 9-game series dragged on, and the players suffered from the lack of travel days.