Episode 1879: Me and Julio Down By the Ballyard

Summary[]

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley are joined by FanGraphs lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen to banter about what accounts for the variability in how quickly prospects acclimate to the majors and detecting holes in swings, discuss (10:50) which teams have the prospects to trade for Juan Soto, review (22:59) impressive performances from the Futures Game (including a booming BP by Francisco Álvarez and a record throw by Masyn Winn), recap (31:02) the highs of the Home Run Derby and All-Star Game (with a focus on Julio Rodríguez's standout Derby and the events' best promotional moments), then break down the amateur draft, touching on the top three picks, the Orioles' fruitful draft, the Rangers' surprising Kumar Rocker selection, why so many sons of major leaguers were drafted, atypical players and potential two-way players, the teams with the best and most perplexing draft classes, the impact of the draft combine, and more, followed (1:45:09) by a Stat Blast on César Hernández and historic power outages, and a Past Blast from 1879.

Topics[]

Variability in how prospects fare in the majors
Do teams know about player holes when they call them up, or is it a surprise?
Could you trade Juan Soto just for prospects? Or do you have to include some "blue-chip" players?
MLB Futures Game batting practice and game
Home Run Derby
Ump Cam and miked-up Alek Manoah
Eric breaks down the amateur draft
Orioles picking Jackson Holliday as top overall
Other picks by Orioles and other teams: Termar Johnson, Dylan Beavers, Max Wagner, Jud Fabian, Nolan McLean, Silas Ardoin, Adam Crampton, Carter Young, and Andrew Walters.
Ranger pick Kumar Rocker as third overall
Brock Porter, Xavier Isaac
So many sons of former major leaguers
Druw Jones
Unusual players: ambidextrous pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje, 7-foot tall pitcher Jared Beck, knuckleball-capable Corey Lewis
Two-way players: Reggie Crawford, Jack Brannigan, Dylan Phillips, Austin Charles
Dylan Lesko, soft-throwing pitcher Tyler Cleveland
Best draft: Atlanta. Runner-up: Brewers. Honorable mentions: Reds, A's.
Perplexing: Phillies.
Draft combine
Last time a player had 500 PA without a home run
How historic is César Hernández's current "power outage"?
Past Blast: Batting order and who starts each half-inning
Episode 1868 follow-up: Shohei Ohtani won the ESPY for "Best athlete, men's sports" and "Best MLB player". Sorry, Jorge Soler.
Episode 1872 follow-up: In a trailer for the movie Secret Headquarters, a character uses his new powers to throw a baseball through a glove, a fence, and a brick wall. "Baseball continues to be over-represented on screen."

Banter[]

Eric's temptation to sneak onto Episode 1878 to prevent Grant Brisbee from taking the lead in guest appearances.

Stat Blast[]

Warm-up

Isiah Kiner-Falefa has not hit a home run yet this season in 386 PAs. Last year, he hit 8 home runs in 677 PAs. Ben notes, "Yes, the ball has ennui, but it is not dead."
The last player to go 500 PAs without a home run was Ben Revere in 2012 (553 PAs).

How historic is César Hernández's current "power outage"?

Last season, César Hernández had 21 home runs in 637 PAs. This year, he has gone homerless in 404 PAs. Is this historic?

Longest home run drought to start the season: Among players with 20+ homers, the most PAs to hit their first homer in the next season is 264 by JJ Hardy in 2014. In 2013, he hit 25. In 2014, he ended up with 9 but took 257 PAs to get the first. Hernández is at 404 and counting.

Absolute drop: The fewest homers by a qualified hitter in a season after a 21+ home run season is 5.

Player	Previous season HRs	Next season HRs
Wade Boggs	24 (1987)	5
Bert Campaneris	22 (1970)	5
Al Cowens	24 (1977)	5
Gary Gaetti	21 (1983)	5
Jacque Jones	27 (2006)	5
Keith Moreland	27 (1987)	5

Boggs's high 1987 total was courtesy of the 1987 "rabbit ball".

Worst blackout: Players who went completely homerless.

Minimum PA	Player	Previous season HRs	Homerless PAs in next season
100	Ken Griffey, Jr.	19 (2009)	109
300	Von Hayes	17 (1990)	323
400 502 (qualifying)	Snuffy Stirnwiess	10 (1945)	563

Stirnwiess's blackout came in the season after the war, when all the good players came back.

Editor's note: It seems that Scott Podsednik fell from 12 to 0 in 2004/2005 as a qualifying batter.

Hernández is on pace for 672 PAs. The record for that many PAs is 1932-1933 Billy Rogell with 9. He had 674 PAs in his 0 homer season. In the expansion era, it's 1983-1984 Marvell Wynne with 7. He had 702 PAs in his 0 homer season.

Worst drop in home run rate:

Condition	Player	Previous year	Next year	Drop
Overall	Javy Lopez	2003: 8.30% (43/518)	2004: 3.61% (23/638)	4.70%
At most 30 HRs	Ival Goodman	1938: 4.60% (30/652)	1939: 1.23% (7/571)	3.37%

Hernández had a 3.297% rate last year, so he cannot beat either of these records.

Notes[]

The episode title is a pun on the Paul Simon song "Me and Julio Down by the Schoolyard".

Prospects adjusting to the majors

Prospects have had widely varying results in the majors. Julio Rodríguez, Bobby Witt, and Adley Rutchman started out slow but turned it on. Jeremy Peña and Nolan Gorman were great from the start. Jarred Kelenic flamed out. Spencer Torkelson got sent down.
Eric says that some of it is just natural variability. But opposing teams also get to study the player closely and try to exploit their weaknesses, while coaches try to close those holes.
Eric says that sometimes it's just that the player has reached their limit. "I can't consistently win on All Madden. I can't do it. I've never been able to do it."
Eric says that major league pitching velocity is something not seen in the minors, so you don't really know how players will fare when they see it.

Juan Soto trade rumors

Ben jokes that the Angels would have to trade away their entire farm system just to get Juan Soto. Eric notes that minor league roster limits make even this trade impossible, since the Nationals would have no way of playing them all to see which are any good.
Some teams have more prospects than they have spots on the 40-man roster for them, so they can afford to trade some away. He names Texas, Cleveland, St. Louis, and the Dodgers.
The Mariners would have to include Julio Rodríguez in any trade for Soto.
The Cardinals are very well-positioned due to their prospect depth.
The Nationals should trade for hitters, because Eric believes that pitchers are too unpredictable.

Futures Game

Francisco Alvarez was crushing batting practice. Jordan Walker was hitting the ball effortlessly, but he was not trying to impress anyone.
Eric says that Eury Pérez is "very special". His size and athleticism remind Eric of CC Sebathia.
When Ben saw the clip of Masyn Winn throwing the ball to first, he thought it skipped a frame. The velocity was totally unnecessary. He was just showing off. Winn is a potential two-way player.
At a spring training game, Meg and Eric saw Yoelqui Céspedes throw out a runner at third from the warning track. Meg: "It was pretty spectacular."
Other big arms are Oneil Cruz, Nathan Eaton.
Eric was impressed by Jhonkensy Noel and Bobby Miller, doesn't know what to make of Taj Bradley.

Home Run Derby

Ben is pleased that MLB has done a good job of promoting the game this time. They've "stopped insisting that it means something" and focus on just making it fun.
Ben calls the weekend the "Julio Show". This was his day, even though Juan Soto won the Home Run Derby.
Ben On Albert Pujols at the Home Run Derby: "He's not that old [compared to Ted Williams at the 1999 All Star Game], but he did look like he needed to sit down a take a breather."
Meg, on Pujols's expression when he realized that he advanced to the next round: "Oh God, I gotta keep hitting home runs now."

Weekend atmosphere and other notes

Meg: "Y'know, Dodger Dogs? They're just okay. They're just hot dogs, guys."
Eric: "I did not realize how much young women like Bad Bunny."
Eric is impressed that the Latinx community showed up in force and feels that they will save baseball.
Eric: "Bad Bunny is like Puerto Rican Elvis. I've never heard women scream that way."
Ben appreciates the contrast in home run hitting styles. Soto was spraying everywhere, but Julio was putting them in the same spot.
Eric felt it was crazy watching Juan Soto, a 23-year-old who is destined for the Hall of Fame.
Eric didn't go down on the field for batting practice because it's so crowded and you can't see anything. But he regrets missing his chance to tell Jimmy Rollins and Michael Bourne how much of a fan he is. "Just get over yourselves and do it."
Ben is saddened that derby performance is so dependent upon pitching. He is amused that Pete Alonso takes the Home Run Derby so seriously that he went and lifted weights between rounds.
Ben wants to see more Ump Cam, even in real games.
Ben liked the miked-up pitchers. Of all the players, pitcher is the one that offers the most insights. He wouldn't want it in real games, though.
Alek Manoah was a particularly good choice for being miked up because it suits his outgoing personality. Manoah talked through his thought process for pitch selection, taunted the batters from the mound, and jokingly asked the booth for scouting info on the batters.

Draft kings

The Orioles had 5 out of the top 100 picks and chose Jackson Holliday as their top pick. Eric personally would have picked Termar Johnson first.
Eric tells story of seeing Jackson Holliday hitting BP in spring training and knowing immediately "This guy's going in the top five."
Eric on Termarr Johnson's poise and maturity: "I don't know if I've ever wanted a young man to be my son as much as Termarr Johnson."
Eric is concerned about Dylan Beavers: "This guy cannot catch up to velocity up and away from him."
When Eric got the text that the Rangers had picked Kumar Rocker third overall, he didn't believe it. "No, c'mon."
Eric: "The Rangers would like to be good soon, so people don't get fired."
Eric hopes Rocker does well but is concerned that he completely changed his delivery in the past few years.
In the FanGraphs live chat, Eric was getting information faster and more accurately than some teams. Eric got a text message: "I was beating the AGM in the room, and they were getting some of the stuff wrong, and the GM was like 'You gotta tighten it up.'"
Zachary Levine is concerned at how so many of the top picks were sons of major leaguers. In horse racing, you often see children of people already involved in horse racing because having a parent in the business gives you an enormous degree of access. You grew up around horses, you know so much about how the business works. Is the advantage of having a father as a major leaguer drowning out those who do not?
Eric thinks Druw Jones is the most talented player in the class, though maybe not the best.
When Eric got his credentials for this year's combine, they said, "Let us know if you need anything." Eric asked if he could see the data from last year's combine. They didn't reply.
Eric's final words were "Suck it, Grant!"

Past Blast

A new rule specifies that the batting order is established during the first time through the order, and that the player who leads off the inning is the one after the one who completed their plate appearance in the previous inning.
Note that the batting order is not set at the start of the game. Teams could choose their batting order on the fly, but was immutable once set.
The previous rule was that the first batter of an inning is the one who comes after the player who made the last out in the previous inning. Suppose the player batting 6th is on first with two outs, and the 9th position batter hits a ground ball. If you get the force at second, then the leadoff hitter in the next inning will be the one who bats 7th. If you get the out at first, then the leadoff hitter will be the batter at the top of the order.
The rule change was to reduce confusion over who was due to bat next, but it removed an interesting element of strategy.
Richard Herschberger says, "This is on my short list of 'old rules I would restore' in my 'If I were commissioner' fantasies."