Episode 1840: How Can You Not Be Pedantic About Baseball?

Summary[]

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the reaction to and tactical underpinnings of the Yankees' controversial decision to walk Miguel Cabrera, the balance between win expectancy and entertainment, and whether analytically-driven changes have hurt baseball as a spectator experience more so than other sports, then (14:20) meet major leaguers Simón Muzziotti of the Phillies and Gosuke Katoh of the Blue Jays, Stat Blast (29:31) about whether increased time between pitches or rising pitch counts has contributed more to longer game times, and answer listener emails about critiquing umpires' grammar, tool grades for big leaguers, whether the pitch clock could kill the zombie runner, whether young hitters (such as Julio Rodríguez) have ball/strike calls go against them more often, whether surpassing Joe DiMaggio's hitting streak could propel a player into the Hall of Fame, why free agents tend to take the most lucrative contract offers, wearing the jersey of a player who's switched teams, the Marlins rostering every major leaguer named Jesús, team games with no outfield outs, and the most unassisted putouts by a player in a game.

Topics[]

Meeting major leaguers Simón Muzziotti (Phillies CF) and Gosuke Katoh (Blue Jays 2B)
Are higher pitch counts the primary reason for longer games?
Should umpires refer to teams as singular or plural in replay review announcements?
Tool grades for players even after they reach the majors
Could the time savings from the pitch clock also kill the zombie runner?
Do young hitters like Julio Rodríguez have ball/strike calls go against them more often?
Could breaking an unbreakable record (such as Joe DiMaggio's hitting streak) be sufficient to earn a Hall of Fame spot?
Why do free agents seem to consider only money and not other factors when choosing a contract?
Wearing the jersey of a player who switched teams
Teams who have cornered the market on players with a specific first name
Team games with no outfield putouts
The most unassisted putouts by a player in a game

Banter[]

Miguel Cabrera intentionally walked with 2999 hits
Balancing winning and entertainment
Has baseball been the sport most hurt (entertainment-wise) by modern analytics?

Email Questions[]

Daniel (Patreon): I saw a line graph in Axios showing how the average game time has gone from 2 hours to over 3 hours in the last 70 years and a friend and I were wondering how closely the pitch counts are correlated to this? Can you tell us how many more pitches are thrown per game now vs 1950? If game time is up 100%, I wonder if pitch count is up 100% or more like 70%. Any help appreciated.

Nat: I was pretty happy when the league decided to mic up the umpires for replay announcements. But my heart fell when I first heard the ump speak words aloud, and over the first couple weeks of the season it's only gotten worse. Here's the issue: the ump will get on the mic and say something like, "After review, the call stands. The runner was safe at first. San Francisco loses their challenge." Their challenge. I'm sure you see the issue. "San Francisco" is a singular noun, and American English traditionally uses the singular form when referring to a team by its city.* The Giants are plural, but San Francisco is singular. In every single game I've watched or listened to, the ump makes this same mistake: "Miami loses their challenge." "Minnesota loses their challenge." Is this a mandate from Manfred? Or do we as fans need to start a letter-writing campaign? (In British English, it's proper to use the plural form for all collective nouns, e.g.. "Fulham are playing Chelsea this weekend" or "U2 are going to play a concert for the Queen." But we don't play cricket here in the US, and we make our pronouns agree with their antecedent nouns.)

Rob (Patreon): As a long-suffering Mariners fan, my favorite thing about my team for a long time was the anticipation of what could be with whatever top prospects we had at the time (remember Jeff Clement? BOOO). It was really cool a few years ago when Fangraphs started rating the tools of each teams' prospects on the 20-80 grade tool scale, with current and future values that determined the value of said prospects, and I of course ate it up with guys like Julio Rodríguez and Jarred Kelenic. However, I'm always disappointed when I look at a guy like, say, Eugenio Suarez, and see that he debuted too long ago to have the prospect analysts rate his power on the scale. Today, it got me thinking: why don't we keep rating these guys' tools as they get older and grow into established major leaguers? We have more data and video on them than anyone, and I think it would be really cool to have a running list on Fangraphs of a guy's power and hit tool as he ages, and seeing his speed slowly dip from 60 down to 30 as he turns from CF to 1B. Selfishly, I'd also like to get confirmation of Eugenio Suarez's 80 grade power, but I guess his power doesn't need a grade when you see him rifle a low line drive to right center in T-Mobile that somehow gets into the stands.

Paul (Patreon): I’m wondering if it’s possible to test the hypothesis that there is a bias against younger players when it comes to getting rung up on called strike 3s. Might be a stat blast in it?

Brian: Do you think the pitch clock, if it actually gets major league games down to 2:45ish, will incentivize eliminating the zombie runner rule, or at least maybe waiting to implement it in the 11th or 12th inning? Sadly, I'm guessing no, but would be interested in your opinions.

Jake: I was in the depths of YouTube yesterday, and as a Red Sox fan stumbled on a video covering Dustin Pedroia's 25 game hit streak in 2011. I really enjoy following hit streaks as their novelty and relation to one of the records considered to be "unbreakable" make the stakes surrounding them relatively high. This led me to consider, if a player like Dustin Pedroia, who had a good but certainly not Hall of Fame worthy career, had broken Joe DiMaggio's unbreakable 56 game hitting streak, would that be enough to at least merit a couple extra years on the ballot? Similar to the question about Kyle Higashioka being on the cover of MLB the Show, what would be the minimum a player would have to do in addition to breaking DiMaggio's record to get in the Hall of Fame? Or do you think it would not have an effect?

Zach: I also resonated with the question about team turnover (for the record I often intentionally buy the jerseys of underdog players who are at risk of being let go. I’m a Yankees fan and bought a Phil Hughes jersey in 2013 and a Gary Sanchez jersey last year). A related question I have is regarding why free-agent players always seem to just go to whatever team offers them the most money. I would think if I was already a multi-millionaire I wouldn’t need any more money. That financial freedom would enable me to prioritize other concerns like loyalty to my teammates, loyalty to young fans, not moving my family, becoming a team icon etc. Are pro athletes just fed a steady-diet of get-rich propaganda? Or could they possibly have a more selfless motive i.e. if top players are paid more, it raises the value of more marginal players?

"Ted: Your recent discussion of roster turnover and its effects on rooting interests in [[[Episode 1836: To Me, You Are Perfect|episode 1836]] reminded me of an ad I heard recently for a service called "Jersey Assurance," which attempts to mitigate the cost of trades and free agent signings for fans of individual players in MLB as well as in the NBA, NFL, NHL and possibly other leagues. As I understand it, if one buys a jersey bearing a player's name from the official MLB store, then she can claim a free replacement uniform if that player gets signed to another team within 90 days of her purchase -- either the same player's jersey on his new team, or another player's jersey from the team her chosen player is leaving. First of all, I'm not sure why this policy isn't called Jersey Insurance, since that's what it is. Second, it got me thinking about the differences between rooting for a team and rooting for an individual player. For players whose fanbase is largely independent of the team they play for, like Shohei Ohtani, does it even matter to his fans what team name is on the front of the jersey, so long as Ohtani's name is on the back? Isn't there a certain kind of hipster authenticity in wearing proof that you were rooting for Ohtani in his Angels days before he moved on to, say, the Dodgers or whatever? And even for fans of whole teams, is a jersey with a former player's name on it really worth so much less than one with a current player? Is it possible (gasp!) that rooting for teams and individual players are not wholly separate phenomena? My first loyalty is to the Twins, but I still feel a little surge of pride when a former Twin performs well elsewhere -- for example, when Eddie Rosario got his moment in the sun in the NLCS last fall. Curious to hear whether you think Jersey Assurance is a good deal for fans, or just a nice gesture without much practical value. In any event, I bet we can all agree it's a better deal than getting an extended warranty on your printer, since it doesn't require any added fees to take advantage of Jersey Assurance. (For your reference, here's the policy details.)

Shaun (Patreon): After watching the Marlins for a few games, I got to wondering just how many Jesus's there are in MLB. After some checking, I think there are only 3 active this year and they are all Marlins. Has any other team ever had more than 3 of the same first name while having all of that name that were active?

Simon: [Citing tweet by Curt Hogg] The Brewers outfielders did not record a single out tonight. Someone smart figure out the last time that happened in a game.

Scott: The Mets broadcast tonight noted that Nationals third baseman Maikel Franco had a "special game" with five unassisted putouts at third base over the course of the game. Keith Hernandez even went so far as to say he had never seen that in a baseball game. In the spirit of the recent true "ghost player" and plays-in-a-row stat blasts, is this truly as special for a fielder as the broadcast believed? What position has the most unassisted putouts in a game? The least (other than presumably pitcher/catcher and maybe shortstop)?

Stat Blast[]

Have pitch counts gone up in sync with game length?

Ben regrets that pitch count data is available only as far back as 1988, Sam Miller's benchmark for when modern baseball begins. Kenny Jackelen assisted with this Stat Blast.
Today, a 9-inning game averages 297 pitches and lasts 3 hours 6 minutes. The recent 4-hour game between the Yankees and Red Sox (linked below) had 371 pitches, nearly 25% pitches more than average, and 28% longer game time.
In 1988, there were about 3.5 pitches per plate appearance, and it increased steadily over the years, up to 3.9 today. Ben attributes this to increases in foul balls and reduction in foul territory (see Travis Sawchik's article linked below), and pitchers throwing more cautiously and trying for strikeouts.
In 1988, there were an average of 76 batters per game. It increased to 79 but has returned to around 76 today.
In 2021, games were 15% longer than 1988's 2 hours 45 minutes, and pitches per 9 innings were up 12%.
The increase in the number of pitches explains most of the increase in game length. Ben finds this disconcerting, because it means pitch clocks won't help as much as we might want.
Meg points out that the conventional wisdom is that the wasted time is stuff between pitches like advertising breaks, but in fact it's just that we have more pitches. Pitches are action, yet we are upset, which makes Meg wonder if we secretly don't like baseball after all.
Ben counters that the problem is that the batted ball ratio is down. Batted balls are what we generally think of as action.
In recent years, Ben feels that game length has increased faster than pitch counts.
Ben adds, "The solution, obviously, is to limit the number of pitchers on active rosters," calling back to his proposal from Episode 1839 to fix everything about baseball.

Cornering the market on players with a specific first name

Teams with all three players with a specific first name:
- 1908 Reds: Dick (Bayless, Egan, Hoblitzel).
- 1936 Reds: Lee (Grissom, Handley, Stine).
- 1967 Pirates: Manny (Jiménez, Mota, Sanguillén).
- 2022 Marlins: Jesús (Aguilar, Luzardo, Sánchez).
No team has had four or more. There have been 169 teams who got both players with a given first name. Thousands of teams have gotten the sole player with a given first name.
The Marlins have a low-A player named Jesus Zabaleta. Ben considers it unlikely that Zabaleta will make the big leagues this year, but it's possible that a recently-retired Jesús like Jesús Cruz could come back. Ben is pulling for the Marlins to break the record.
Meg thinks the Angels should pursue players who share names with religious angels.

Team with no outfield putouts in a game

Ryan Nelson calculated that this is rather common. It happened 164 times this century. He estimates about 500 occurrences overall. (Records are incomplete for early baseball.) Even the Brewers themselves pulled this off on September 8, 2021.
Jeremy Frank noted that it was accomplished just two days earlier, by the Mariners on April 17. A game with no outfield putouts or assists happens about 5 to 15 times a year.
Ben notes that this is another case of an "Is this unusual?" question having the answer "No." But it's important to acknowledge the null results, too.

Most unassisted putouts by a single player in a game

Ryan Nelson did not count strikeouts, which are formally recorded as putouts by the catcher.
The record is 13, by right fielder Roland Roomes of the Reds on July 28, 1989. Note however that it was a 17-inning game.
The record for a 9-inning game is 12, accomplished twice: Center fielder Lyman Bostock did it on May 25, 1977 for the Twins, and center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury for the Red Sox on May 20, 2009.
For non-outfielders, the record is 9, ten times at first base (9 in 9-inning games), and once at second base (Tony Bernazard, Cleveland, April 27, 1984, in 18 innings).
The record for a non-outfielder, non-first-baseman, in 9-innings or fewer: 8 unassisted putouts.
- Rich Dauer (2B) Orioles, June 29, 1979: 7 flyouts, 1 unassisted force at second. Including assists, he participated in 14 of the outs.
- Charlie Hollocher (SS), Cubs, July 7, 1922.
- Muddy Ruel (C), September 27, 1928: 7 foul pop flies, 1 fair pop fly. Also caught four strikeouts, for a total of 12 putouts.
The record for a third baseman in a 9-inning game is 7, accomplished five times: Heinie Groh (Reds, August 3, 1918), Woody English (Cubs, August 13, 1932), Hal Luby (Giants, July 29, 1944), Willie Jones (Phillies, August 6, 1958), and Ryan Freel (Reds, September 6, 2004).
Meg is delighted at a player named Heinie and wonders if he played with the Dicks. (He did not.)
A third baseman has had five or more unassisted putouts in a 9-inning game 277 times, though only 28 times this century.
Meg apologizes for talking about the Reds so much in this episode.

Notes[]

The episode title is a pun on the saying "How can you not be romantic about baseball?" Ben used this pun in Episode 1823 and brought it back to title this episode. It becomes a catch phrase on the podcast and even spawned its own category of listener email.
Ben and Meg are not offended by the intentional walk of Miguel Cabrera. It didn't deprive him of his 3000th hit. It just postponed it to another day. Cabrera himself joked about it, saying that it helped his OBP.
This is different from pulling Clayton Kershaw with an active perfect game (Episode 1836). However, in both cases, Cabrera and Kershaw were not upset by the decision, and Ben and Meg don't think they have any real standing to be upset either.
Ben notes that baseball may be unusual among the major sports that the thing which is analytically advantageous tends to be the less entertaining option. In basketball, three pointers are fun to watch. In football, the passing game is more dynamic.
Sadly, Simón Muzziotti was optioned to the minors moments before the episode was recorded.
The KATOH Farm System Ranking is named after Gosuke Katoh. Katoh at the time was in AA. He struck out a lot, but was also very young for the league and drew lots of walks. FanGraphs's Chris Mitchell developed the KATOH system in 2014 in part to understand Katoh's performance. (Mitchell's work led to him being hired by the Twins.) The initial KATOH system gave Katoh a 27% chance of making the majors.
Gosuke Katoh posted an FAQ about himself on Twitter. He lists his position as "Yes" and notes that he eats two bananas a day "because a monkey never cramps". Episode 1841 explains the banana reference.
In March, Katoh posted a photo of himself in which he wore tight pants. Someone joked on Twitter that he had borrowed Robbie Ray's famously tight pants. It turns out the joke was correct! Mallex Smith asked to wear the tightest shirt, and Katoh responded by asking for the tightest pants.

Singular or plural for team names?

Meg's preference is to use "they" when referring to the team by nickname ("The Giants lose their challenge"), but to use "it" when referring to the team by city ("San Francisco loses its challenge").
Meg suspects that the sample sentence provided by the league when they introduced replay announcements used the plural pattern, and the umpires have copied it.
Meg wonders what'll happen when, say, the Cubs play the White Sox. Announcing "Chicago" is ambiguous. She jokes that the umpire could say "North side" and "South side".
Meg agrees that the current situation is wrong, but not wrong enough to matter.
Since all sports use the same pattern, Meg wonders if there's some pan-sports officiating policy.
Ben prefers "The Giants lose their challenge". He notes that while "San Francisco loses its challenge" is technically correct ("the best kind of correct"), it sounds strange.
Ben struggles with making "The A's" possessive, because it's an abbreviation, not a plural. It's short for "The Athletics". It's not multiple copies of "The A". Should he write "The A's's stadium"? Meg suggests "The Athletics's stadium." Ben usually rewords the sentence to avoid the issue.

Tool grading for major leaguers

Ben notes that we can get equivalents via StatCast, such as "Sprint speed is in the X'th percentile."
Meg says that continuing tool grades for major leaguers is something they've considered at FanGraphs, but they simply don't have the staff to do it.
Meg points out we do have plenty of performance stats for major leaguers, and the tool grades were trying to predict performance anyway.

Is there a called strike 3 bias against younger players?

Ben references some studies (linked below) that there is a slight bias toward veteran players, but not enough to explain Julio Rodríguez's strikeout rate. The effect is noticeable only in aggregate.

Will the pitch clock kill the zombie runner?

Ben hopes so. Meg notes that the original excuse for the zombie runner was that it limited contact between players and to lower injury risk due to the shortened spring training.

Is breaking an unbreakable record enough to make the Hall of Fame?

Meg congratulates Jake on emerging from the depths of YouTube without encountering anything terrifying.
Meg says that it's common to throw a Hall of Fame vote to a player just to keep them eligible for a few years, keep the conversation going. The crowded ballots of late have made this difficult to do. However, that cohort is aging off the ballot, leaving room for more of these "keep the conversation going" votes.
Dustin Pedroia had a good enough peak season for the Hall of Fame, but he didn't have the longevity.
Ben thinks that you'd earn yourself a special exhibit in the museum for breaking the record, but not a spot in the Hall itself. Roger Maris, for example, is not in the Hall of Fame, despite breaking a longstanding record. Breaking the record may help tip the balance for a player on the cusp.
Ben is not as interested in how many years a player stayed on the ballot.

Why are free agents seemingly interested only in money?

Ben and Meg note that we don't have full knowledge of what offers were on the table when a free agent signs. Turning down higher offers might be more common than we think.
Meg notes that Freddie Freeman got what ended up being a lower-valued offer from the Dodgers due to California state taxes being higher than Georgia. But he probably wanted to move closer to his family in California.
Some teams may have to pay a premium for players due to geographic location or simply not yet being competitive.
Some players consider it important to help set the comp for future players.
Ben notes that athletes are competitive, and that may drive them to pursue the highest possible contract even if they don't need the money. It's just another competition.
Ben addresses the details of the question: Loyalty to young fans? Well, the new team has young fans too! Loyalty to teammates? You can't control where your teammates go. Not moving? When you're that rich, you can pay someone to move your stuff.

Wearing jerseys for players who aren't on the team any more

Meg giggles when Ted's question gets to "hipster authenticity" for having an "original" Ohtani Angel jersey. "It implies that there's someone out there who is like, 'I was a fan of Ohtani before he was good.' He was the MVP, man. I think the secret's out!"
On hipster authenticity: Ben owns a Samurai Japan Ohtani jersey, though it was a gift.
Meg used her own money to buy a Wade LeBlanc game-worn jersey, and she still loves it.
Meg is a little puzzled by the short 90-day window. Are you going to buy a jersey of somebody who is about to leave the team for free agency? She figures maybe the player could be traded. Ben notes that the A's gave Matt Olson jerseys as a gift to their season-ticket holders, and then traded him away.
Meg spotted a kid wearing a Corey Seager jersey (#5) who had taped a piece of paper over the name to convert it to a makeshift Freddie Freeman jersey.
Meg concludes that it all depends on the fan's relationship to the player and the team.
Ben says he wouldn't exchange the jersey for the same player on his new team. It would be weird going to a home game wearing a jersey of another team. Whether he'd change to another player from the team depends on his lingering fondness for the player, and if the team has another player whom he would want to support. Ben doesn't consider himself a big jersey person.
Ben thinks it would be nice to have a generic team jersey, so he can show his support for a player regardless of team.
Ben would probably just keep the jersey, unless the player turned out to have done something heinous.
Ben thinks maybe the primary audience for the offer is people buying gifts for a young fan. The young fan doesn't have enduring memories of a player who just left, so get somebody who just signed a 10-year extension and will be on the team for a long time.
Ben thinks one of the best parts of going to the ballpark is seeing all the jerseys and getting to Remember Some Guys.
Ben notes that there's a stigma around wearing a band's T-shirt to their show, but not a similar one about wearing a team jersey to that team's game.