Episode 1839: Gas Rationing

Summary[]

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about exactly how many feral cats have infested the Oakland Coliseum and exactly how few fans have attended A's games this season, Miguel Cabrera's impending 3,000th hit and the potentially long time that may elapse before another player joins the 3,000-hit club, the recentism of MLB.TV highlights, the Guardians' Gabriel Arias starting his career by reaching on error in two consecutive plate appearances (and the nickname of Icehouse Wilson), an uptick in weather-related postponements, MLB's green initiatives, and how 2023's more balanced schedule could cause more emissions, Charlie Blackmon becoming the first MLB player to shill for a sportsbook, and Shohei Ohtani's latest two-way heroics, plus a Stat Blast (1:09:09) about the ascendance of max-effort starting pitching and Ben's preferred fix for all that ails on-field baseball.

Topics[]

Episode 1838 follow-up: Estimate of the number of feral cats in the Oakland Coliseum, and jokes about cats outnumbering fans.
Miguel Cabrera approaching 3000 hits, exclusive clubs he will be joining, and how long it will be before we have another 3000-hit player.
MLB.tv highlights recency bias.
Guardians Gabriel Arias reaches on error in first two career plate appearances.
Icehouse Wilson's nickname.
Follow-up: Are we seeing an increase in weather-related postponements?
MLB Earth Day press release crowing about their environmental efforts in reducing waste, but ignores their largest source of carbon emissions: Travel. The new 2023 more-balanced schedule will create even more travel.
Listener Jacob notes that the Oakland's second-division Roots soccer team outdrew the A's for their home opener.
Charlie Blackmon becomes the first MLB player to represent a sports betting agency.
The Angels batted around in the top of the first, making Shohei Ohtani the first player to bat twice before throwing the first pitch as a starter. He had a dominant start.
Decreasing gap between max-effort and average velocity for pitchers, most notably for starting pitchers.
Ben's proposal to fix everything that's wrong with baseball.
Miguel Cabrera did not get his 3000th hit today.
Final notes: Ohtani's performance, Oakland A's attendance, Yankees now fully vaccinated, replay review gestures in other sports.

Email Questions[]

Tom: Gabriel Arias is playing in his first major league game today for the Guardians. In his first at bat in the second inning, he reached on a throwing error by Tim Anderson. Nine batters later, no outs had been recorded (it was a bad day for Dallas Keuchel), and Arias reached on a fielding error by, you guessed it, Tim Anderson. Maybe this is a "too qualified" fun fact, but feels like there's something interesting in there. Has anyone ever reached base in their first two MLB at bats on errors? How about with any of these qualifiers: (by the same fielder) (in the same inning) (with no outs recorded between those at bats)?

Eli (Patreon): Hey Ben and Meg - a random non-Trout question that I'd love a stat blast on - although please disregard if too mean/negative! I was looking at Dante Bichette's baseball reference page and noticed that he was a 4 time all-star who was a 5.7 career WAR player. Is that the lowest WAR/ASGs ratio ever for someone with multiple ASG appearances?

Stat Blast[]

All Star Game appearances with low WAR[]

Ben used Stathead to find hitters with four or more All Star Game (ASG) appearances and less than 5.7 WAR. All of them are catchers. Lowest is Rollie Hemsley (3.8 WAR, 5 ASGs).
Among players with at least two ASGs, the lowest is Hal Smith, who appeared in three ASGs (two in one year, back when there were two ASGs each year) with 1.9 career WAR.
For pitchers, the lowest WAR for 4+ ASG is from Josh Hader, with 9.5 WAR and 4 ASG. If you set the minimum to 2 ASG, then you get Gregory Soto with 1.9 WAR.

Gas rationing[]

Ben studied the spread between starting pitcher maximum and average velocity. A small spread means that pitchers are throwing at max effort more often.
Russell Carleton wrote that "everyone is a reliever, even the starters." Pitchers know how many innings they will throw, and they can pace themselves to run out of gas exactly when their time is up. This "fixed endpoint" usage is now extending to starters, who can now throw max effort more, knowing that they don't need to leave anything in the tank for later. (This also means that if a starter is pulled after five dominant innings, it doesn't mean he could have gone deeper.)
Lucas Apostoleris helped with the analysis in this Stat Blast.
Last year, the difference between Shohei Ohtani's 95th percentile 4-seamer velocity and his average 4-seamer velocity was 3.3 mph. This year, it's 1.95 mph. This shift is part of an overall trend. (Ben chose 95th percentile to avoid outliers due to bad data.)
The league average gap between the 95th percentile and average velocity for 4-seamers has fallen steadily. In 2008, it was 2.21 mph. It crossed 2 mph in 2019, and this year so far, it's 1.61 mph.
The gap between 95th and 5th percentile has fallen from 4.7 mph in 2008 to 3.3 mph this year so far.
There is a similar effect for relievers, but it is much more dramatic for starters.
Ben says that the solution is obvious: Even stricter limits on the number of pitchers allowed on the roster. The current limit is 13. Ben feels it should be lowered to 12 or 11. "That would fix everything." Starters would be forced to pace themselves so they can go deeper into games. They'd be throwing max effort less often, which lowers injury risk. Velocity would be down, so offense would go up. Fewer pitching changes will speed up the game.
Ben finds this much less intrusive than defensive restrictions.
Ben counters the argument that this would take jobs away from pitchers by noting that this is just giving the jobs back to the hitters who lost their jobs when pitchers stole them in the first place.

Notes[]

There are an estimated "30 to 40" cats and kittens living in the Oakland Coliseum. Cat adoption services are trying to find homes for them.
Listeners have suggested many possible cat names. Meg's favorite is "Max Purrzer".
The A's are doing everything to alienate their fans: The team traded away all their good players, and they raised prices for tickets and parking.
With his 3000th hit, Miguel Cabrera will join not only the 3000-hit club, but also become the 7th member of the 3000 hit + 500 homer club, and the even more exclusive 3000 hit + 500 homer + 0.300 batting average club, joining Henry Aaron and Willie Mays. Albert Pujols had been in this club, but his batting average dropped below .300.
Ryan Nelson found that Gabriel Arias is the first player on record to reach base on error in his first two career plate appearances, no qualifiers needed.
Ben quips that Arias must've thought to himself, "I heard this league was good."
Six players reached on error in their only career plate appearance, including Icehouse Wilson.
Icehouse Wilson got his nickname as a football player, but we don't know where it came from. One theory is that he was cool under pressure. Another theory is that it was assigned to him arbitrarily.
Meg watched a documentary on Abercrombie and Fitch, and the narrator took time to explain what a mall is, and it made her feel old.
Meg is surprised that they've reached the 38 minute mark, and Ben hasn't mentioned Shohei Ohtani yet. Ben says it's coming.
A listener named Brock who follows climate change confirms that there is indeed a higher-than-usual rate of weather-related postponements. The record month is April 2018 with 25 weather postponements, including 6 on April 15. We are on a comparable pace, but the late start to the season means we will not challenge the record. Wildfires and hurricanes are becoming an increasing source of postponements, and Brock anticipates that it is a matter of time before excessive heat becomes a source.
The Oakland Roots averaged 2016 fans per game in 2021, which is just below the A's 2703 in their most recent game. Jacob is watching to see if they will outdraw the A's this year. Editor's note: The Roots ended up averaging 4664 fans per game, compared to Oakland's 9973.
Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle were banned from baseball for several years for being greeters at casinos.
Meg uses Michael Brantley as one of the players that serve as a barometer for how good someone is pitching. Ohtani struck him out with a nasty splitter, and Brantley, normally an even-tempered guy, slammed his bat in anger so hard that a chip flew off. Ohtani politely pointed at the broken bat.
Meg is delighted that in the same game, Ohtani bunted for a base hit while himself having a perfect game. Ben notes that in the bottom of the inning, Niko Goodrum attempted to bunt for a base hit, and he was booed by his own home team fans! Editor's note: Ohtani was not actually perfect. He allowed a walk, which was erased by a caught stealing.
Ohtani got as many hits in that game as he gave up.
Meg reads out the game log that led to Miguel Cabrera's final plate appearance of the game: Cabrera was intentionally walked. The Yankees paid for it when Austin Meadows doubled. "I hate this. It makes me feel very angry. I am surprised by the amount of anger that I feel."
Episode 1837 follow-up: As noted in Episode 1838, the gesture for requesting a replay review in NPB is drawing a TV screen in the air. In soccer, the referee uses the same signal to request VAR review. In the NFL, coaches throw a review flag. In the NBA, the coach makes a twirling gesture, suggesting rewinding the tape.