Summary[]
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley announce new perks available to their Patreon supporters, then (12:03) bring on Ben Clemens, the lead author of FanGraphs’ top 50 free agents ranking, to discuss qualifying offers, early transactions, and Wade Miley and size up this offseason’s free agent class, focusing on the strong selection of shortstops and starters, the players Ben is higher or lower on than the consensus, the most obvious fits for players and teams, the potential of Seiya Suzuki, how the CBA negotiations could affect the market, and more. Finally (51:10), Ben, Meg, and other Ben conduct the seventh annual EW free-agent-contract over/under draft.
Topics[]
- Depth of free agent class
- How did Ben rank and tier the free agents?
- Qualifying offer decisions
- Max Scherzer
- Wade Miley
- Loaded shortstop class
- Yan Gomes and scarcity of free agent catchers
- Zack Greinke and Michael Conforto
- Seiya Suzuki
- Impact of a possible universal DH
- How Ben considers possible player destinations when ranking free agents
- Impact of the new CBA on free agency
- Annual Free-Agent-Contracts Draft
Banter[]
- Ben and Meg discuss a variety of new Patreon perks for supporters and how important the Patreon support is for them to continue the podcast in its current form.
Contract Over/Under Draft[]
- Each participant chooses a free agent and predicts whether their eventual contract will be over or under the total guaranteed value as predicted by MLB Trade Rumors.
- Each correct guess adds a point for every million dollars seperating their predicted and actual value, and subtracts for incorrect guesses.
- This draft continues the rule started in 2019 where correct guesses earn a $10 million dollar bonus.
Ben Clemens's Picks | O/U? | Predicted | Actual | Diff | Bonus | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max Scherzer | Under | 120 | 130 | −10 | −10 | |
Kevin Gausman | Under | 138 | 110 | 28 | 10 | 38 |
Starling Marte | Under | 80 | 78 | 2 | 10 | 12 |
Mark Cahna | Over | 24 | 26.5 | 2.5 | 10 | 12.5 |
Kenley Jansen | Over | 26 | 16 | −10 | −10 | |
Total | 388 | 360.5 | 12.5 | 30 | 42.5 |
Meg's Picks | O/U? | Predicted | Actual | Diff | Bonus | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Corey Seager | Under | 305 | 325 | −20 | −20 | |
Freddie Freeman | Under | 180 | 162 | 18 | 10 | 28 |
Yan Gomes | Over | 10 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 13 |
Marcus Semien | Under | 138 | 175 | −37 | −37 | |
Eddie Rosario | Under | 15 | 18 | −3 | −3 | |
Total | 648 | 693 | −39 | 20 | −19 |
Ben Lindbergh's Picks | O/U? | Predicted | Actual | Diff | Bonus | Score |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carlos Rodon | Over | 25 | 44 | 19 | 10 | 29 |
Nick Castellanos | Under | 115 | 100 | 15 | 10 | 25 |
Jorge Soler | Under | 36 | 36 | 0 | 0 | |
Alex Wood | Under | 30 | 25 | 5 | 10 | 15 |
Raisel Iglesias | Under | 56 | 58 | −2 | −2 | |
Total | 262 | 263 | 37 | 30 | 67 |
Note: An interim scoreboard erroneously calculated Ben Clemens's score for predicting Kevin Gausman's contract as +37 instead of +38. Ben Lindbergh used the erroneous value when reporting the results in Episode 1826. Fortunately, the error did not affect the standings.
Notes[]
- 19 of Ben's top 50 free agents are pitchers. He doesn't expect any of the top 15 or so free agents to sign until after the new CBA is in place.
Links[]
- Effectively Wild Episode 1770: Only the Finest Free Agents
- Link to Effectively Wild’s Patreon page
- Link to list of qualifying offer recipients
- Link to FanGraphs’ top 50 free agents
- Link to Ben’s top 50 free agents chat
- Link to MLB Trade Rumors’ top 50 free agents
- Link to Jake Mailhot on the Reds
- Link to Krall’s comments about payroll
- Link to MLBTR on the Athletics’ offseason
- Link to Andrew Friedman’s Kershaw comments
- Link to Suzuki’s B-Ref page
- Link to EW competitions and drafts spreadsheet
- Link to Stove League teaser video
- Link to stream Stove League via Kocowa
- Link to stream Stove League via Viki