Effectively Wild Wiki


Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley announce new perks available to their Patreon supporters, then (12:03) bring on Ben Clemens, the lead author of FanGraphs’ top 50 free agents ranking, to discuss qualifying offers, early transactions, and Wade Miley and size up this offseason’s free agent class, focusing on the strong selection of shortstops and starters, the players Ben is higher or lower on than the consensus, the most obvious fits for players and teams, the potential of Seiya Suzuki, how the CBA negotiations could affect the market, and more. Finally (51:10), Ben, Meg, and other Ben conduct the seventh annual EW free-agent-contract over/under draft.


  • Depth of free agent class
  • How did Ben rank and tier the free agents?
  • Qualifying offer decisions
  • Max Scherzer
  • Wade Miley
  • Loaded shortstop class
  • Yan Gomes and scarcity of free agent catchers
  • Zack Greinke and Michael Conforto
  • Seiya Suzuki
  • Impact of a possible universal DH
  • How Ben considers possible player destinations when ranking free agents
  • Impact of the new CBA on free agency
  • Annual Free-Agent-Contracts Draft


  • Ben and Meg discuss a variety of new Patreon perks for supporters and how important the Patreon support is for them to continue the podcast in its current form.

Contract Over/Under Draft[]

  • Each participant chooses a free agent and predicts whether their eventual contract will be over or under the total guaranteed value as predicted by MLB Trade Rumors.
  • Each correct guess adds a point for every million dollars seperating their predicted and actual value, and subtracts for incorrect guesses.
  • This draft continues the rule started in 2019 where correct guesses earn a $10 million dollar bonus.
Ben Clemens's Picks O/U? Predicted Actual Diff Bonus Score
Max Scherzer Under 120 130 -10 0 -10
Kevin Gausman Under 138 110 27 10 37
Starling Marte Under 80 78 2 10 12
Mark Cahna Over 24 26.5 2.5 10 12.5
Kenley Jansen Over 26
Total 388 524.5 21.5 30 51.5
Meg's Picks O/U? Predicted Actual Diff Bonus Score
Corey Seager Under 305 325 -20 0 -20
Freddie Freeman Under 180
Yan Gomes Over 10 13 3 10 13
Marcus Semien Under 138 175 -37 0 -37
Eddie Rosario Under 15
Total 648 500 -54 10 -44
Ben Lindbergh's Picks O/U? Predicted Actual Diff Bonus Score
Carlos Rodon Over 25
Nick Castellanos Under 115
Jorge Soler Under 36
Alex Wood Under 30 25 5 10 15
Raisel Iglesias Under 56 58 -2 0 -2
Total 86 83 3 10 13


  • 19 of Ben's top 50 free agents are pitchers. He doesn't expect any of the top 15 or so free agents to sign until after the new CBA is in place.