Episode 1748: On the Clock

Summary[]

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the potential benefits of a 15-second pitch clock and the massive winning-percentage mismatch between the NL’s impending wild card winners, then answer listener emails about intentionally swinging at a wild pitch to reach base, the obsolescence of ERA, whether Statcast should be used instead of video to make fair-foul calls, and whether DJ LeMahieu is good, then meet major leaguers Kaleb Ort and Sammy Long and do Stat Blasts about whether relievers are really all failed starters and the Pirates’ historic failure to complete sweeps (plus a postscript about Austin Adams’ record-breaking HBP).

Topics[]

Should players swing at unreachable wild pitches on strike 2 to try and get a free base?
Is ERA obsolete as a stat?
Using additional sensors/tracking systems in order to aid fair-foul reviews
Is DJ LeMahieu good?
Meet a Major Leaguer: Kaleb Ort
Meet a Major Leaguer: Sammy Long
Stat Blast: How many MLB relievers were never tried as starters in the minors
Stat Blast: The Pirates' record futility at securing a sweep

Banter[]

Meg and Ben discuss a Jayson Stark article about the success of introducing a 15-second pitch clock to single-A minor leagues, reducing game length by 20 minutes
The likely 20-game win gap between the 2 NL Wild Card teams
Meg wants the Phillies to play in the wild card game, and refers to a recent Phillies-Cubs game as "performance art"
Ben and Meg discuss options for the wild card games and reference past discussions from Episode 1117.

Email Questions[]

Peter: This may have been tried and failed enough to eradicate it completely, but I think batters should, when they have 2 strikes and fewer than 3 balls, be on the lookout for pitches that are manifestly wild pitch candidates. Once a batter identifies such a pitch, he should swing, not with the intent of making contact but, having an idea that the catcher likely won't catch the ball, with the intent to advance to 1st base through the "uncaught" third strike rule. If I understand correctly, the plate appearance is still scored a strikeout, but batters should care about helping the team by getting on base more than their batting averages. I know hitting is already complicated enough, but some crafty players (Joey Votto or Javier Baez?) could handle this. Are there examples I'm missing of batters trying to do this? Isn't this a great idea?
Javad (Patreon): Quick question about Earned Run Average...Is there still utility in using ERA to evaluate pitcher effectiveness? Pitchers rarely pitch 9 innings anymore, and doubleheaders are now 7 inning games. Since the equation to calculate ERA is based upon nine innings, does ERA truly mean anything anymore? I researched this briefly and found a 2018 article from Baseball America which shows that each year, fewer starting pitchers qualify for the ERA title because they do not reach the minimum # of innings. Has ERA become obsolete? Or should we multiply earned runs by 5 (approximate average innings pitched per start) instead of 9 to come up with a "new" ERA?
Andrew: Watching Dodgers-Padres and Adam Frazier dropping Justin Turner's popup right around the right field line, I see the umpires go to review and then the only angles they have are extremely unhelpful. I am always frustrated how MLB relies only on video for the replay system instead of looking to how other sports use technology to make reviews faster and easier. This seems like a perfect situation to use the new Hawkeye ball tracking system to be able to definitively see where the ball ended up. Tennis seems to use something like this to see where balls land and gets replay answers very quickly with no fuss. Cricket builds in Hawkeye into its replay system too. Why are we stuck with waiting around for someone to try to figure out the parallax in a couple lousy video angles instead of just ...getting the actual answer that statcast probably already has?
Chris (Patreon): Is DJ Lemahieu good? I mean sure, he is a MLB player with a 10 year career, he's great. But FanGraphs has his career wRC+ of exactly 100. He has had three good seasons, and one of them was short. He had lots of below average seasons. By fWAR, he is a 20 win player in 10 years. By reference, about 26 in 10 years. Please explain why the Yankees expected him to be really good when he has far more below average years than above average.
Jeff (Patreon): A question about the idea that most relievers are failed starters. Towards the end of the 3rd inning of Washington at Toronto on 28 April, Blue Jays announcer Buck Martinez noted that reliever Ty Tice has always been a reliever throughout his professional career. A look at Tice’s Baseball Reference page confirms that while he started games in college, he hasn’t in three years in the minors. So, I’m wondering how common or uncommon this is? In terms of players’ professional careers, do we know what percentage of MLB relievers were never tried as starters in the minors? Presumably, it isn’t uncommon in the minors, particularly at lowest levels, to see relievers who have only been relievers professionally. But we tend not to think that those are the pitchers that will make the majors.
Greg (Patreon): I've been considering messaging you all about this for a while now, but this improbability has continued happening so many times that it now absolutely has to be a record. The Pirates had a chance to complete their first sweep of the season today, September 16th against the Reds, but for the third consecutive series, they fell short in the final game. They remain the only team in baseball without a sweep. Not only that, they fell to 0-14 in games where they have a chance to complete a sweep. Is this, as I suspect, a record? How many is the most failed sweep opportunities a team has had in a year where they failed to complete a sweep? Alternatively, how many is the most failed sweep opportunities a team has had before successfully completing their first sweep of the year?

Stat Blast[]

The Stat Blasts this episode are based on Jeff and Greg's emails.

Relievers who Never Started[]

7.9% of relievers this year have never made a start in affiliated ball.
21.7% of relievers this year never had the majority of their innings as a starter during at least one season.
Meet a Major Leaguer players Zach Pop and Kaleb Ort have never started a game in affiliated ball.

Failing to Sweep[]

The Pirates have had 14 changes to sweep a series this year and lost all the sweep clinching games. This is a record for most failed sweep opportunities in a season where a team did not sweep at least one series. Prior to this year the record was 10, which was accomplished by the 1951 St. Louis Browns and the 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates.

Notes[]

Meg notes that in true Effectively Wild fashion, a discussion about feigning a swing at a wild pitch devolves into an existential debate over the actual definition of a swing.
80% of current major leaguers are estimated to have played with a pitch clock.
Ben says “They’re all dead to me” of baseball fans who aren’t Effectively Wild listeners
When discussing the Pirates futility at completing a sweep Ben calls back to the Diamondbacks Headline Contest.