Ben and Sam answer listener emails about whether we should let where and for how much a player signs influence how we expect him to play, then revisit their team predictions from the end of last season and discuss what started the sabermetric revolution.
- Contract impact on player projection
- Revisiting team predictions from Episode 72
- Sabermetric origins
- Eric: "Following J.A. Happ's extension...I don't think it's a bad deal by any means but Happ is nobody's savior or sexy extension candidate. On the other hand, I find Alex Anthopoulos and his front office to be very smart. Would it be reasonable to assume he may be better than a fifth starter or swing-man based solely on the fact that the Blue Jays are willing to give him such an extension. Financial situations aside, would you ever change your view on a player based on how they are valued by a front office? Did people try and find reasons to think James Loney may be better then we all think because he signed with the Rays than if he had signed with the Royals or with the Marlins?
- Spencer (Ontario, Canada): "On the October 30th episode you guys predicted the first and last place teams of 2013. In that episode you committed to revisiting the predictions when the season starts. Sam said it would happen 'on the eve of the 2013 season'. That didn't happen yesterday so I wanted to make sure it still happens since I think comparing pre and post offseason predictions would be a lot of fun."
- Mike: "What event marks the 'beginning' of the sabermetric revolution? The advent of the internet? The publishing of Moneyball? The increasingly popularity of fantasy baseball? I know it's a confluence of these things, but what do you think had the most impact?"
- Ben is unsure how to factor in statistically but mentally accepts that he may think better of a player who signs a big extension with a team, since he figures that team must know something.
- Ben no longer thinks the Blue Jays will finish in last place. Sam thinks that the Angels will win the AL West instead of the Rangers. Sam also revised his prediction to say that the Nationals will win the NL East.
- Both Ben & Sam think the Orioles will finish last in the AL East.
- Ben gives extensive credit to Bill James' baseball abstracts. Sam highlights strat-o-matic.